{"id":252377,"date":"2019-07-17T17:43:39","date_gmt":"2019-07-17T20:43:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/?p=252377"},"modified":"2019-07-17T18:24:44","modified_gmt":"2019-07-17T21:24:44","slug":"associations-foreign-trade-forecasts-toned-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/associations-foreign-trade-forecasts-toned-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Association&#8217;s foreign trade forecasts toned down"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Rio de Janeiro &#8211; The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aeb.org.br\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Brazilian Foreign Trade Association<\/a> (AEB) reported this Wednesday (17) that it revised its 2019 trade balance estimates, <a href=\"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/aeb-preve-quedas-nas-exportacoes-em-2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">which it had originally released last December<\/a>. Its trade surplus forecast moved up from a prior USD 32.7 billion to USD 52.2 billion. The new forecast is down 10.9% from 2018 numbers.<\/p>\n<p>Whole-year exports are now expected to amount to USD 223.7 billion, which is 6.7% less than in 2018. The imports forecast slid from USD 186.3 billion to USD 171.5 billion, down 5.4% from the 2018 result.<\/p>\n<p>AEB chairman Jos\u00e9 Augusto de Castro noted that total foreign trade is expected to be USD 395.266 billion this year, which would fall short of last year\u2019s USD 421.114 billion and a far cry from 2011\u2019s all-time high USD 482.292 billion. \u201cWhat spurs economic activity isn\u2019t the surplus, but foreign trade itself. Whenever it slumps, economic activity cools off,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>According to the association, a few \u201csurprises\u201d have contributed to the downward revision in foreign trade figures. One of them was mining company Vale\u2019s dam burst in Brumadinho (MG); the China-USA trade war; the Argentina crisis, which deteriorated further this year; Brazil\u2019s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whose expected yearlong growth moved down from an earlier 2.5% to 0.8%; and China\u2019s economic, which is poised to grow less than in previous years.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat scenario helped make commodity prices fluctuate. In Brazil\u2019s case, those moved down more than they moved up,\u201d said Castro. He pointed out that swine fever in China had an impact on meat and soy exports from Brazil.<\/p>\n<p>According to Castro, commodities continue to make up the bulk of exports from Brazil, instead of higher value-added finished goods. Foreign sales of the latter are expected to fetch some USD 79 billion this year, which is beneath 2007 levels. \u201cThat\u2019s a very low figure. Sadly, that\u2019s really poor performance,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum<\/p>\n<div class=\"credits-overlay\" data-target=\".wp-image-252356\">Jos\u00e9 Fernando Ogura\/AENPr<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brazil\u2019s Foreign Trade Association has toned down its predictions on imports and foreign trade. Estimates regarding exports and the trade surplus moved up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2316,"featured_media":252356,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[37685,27711,2188,4641,9976,2189,4642,37688],"class_list":{"0":"post-252377","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-aeb-en-3","9":"tag-balanca-comercial-en","10":"tag-export","11":"tag-exportacao-en","12":"tag-foreign-trade-en","13":"tag-import","14":"tag-importacao-en","15":"tag-jose-augusto-de-castro-en-2"},"wps_subtitle":"Brazil\u2019s Foreign Trade Association has toned down its predictions on imports and foreign trade. Estimates regarding exports and the trade surplus moved up. 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