{"id":288426,"date":"2021-02-11T19:35:15","date_gmt":"2021-02-11T22:35:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/?p=288426"},"modified":"2021-02-12T17:38:13","modified_gmt":"2021-02-12T20:38:13","slug":"pandemic-wrought-changes-in-arab-economies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/pandemic-wrought-changes-in-arab-economies\/","title":{"rendered":"Pandemic wrought changes in Arab economies"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00e3o Paulo \u2013 The Arab countries have gone through the Covid-19 crisis with relative resilience, but the pandemic has wrought changes to the region\u2019s economies. Bahrein Economic Development Board chief economist Jarmo Kotilaine discussed these changes during an online event hosted by the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce (ABCC) this Thursday (11).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEverywhere across the region we see a relative resilience. Even in countries that were relatively vulnerable to macroeconomic risk, we haven\u2019t seen that serious of a deterioration, and economies have endured relatively well,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The region\u2019s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slid by 4% to 5% last year, yet a significant pickup is expected in 2021, depending on how the pandemic will progress going forward, according to Kotilaine. \u201cGenerally speaking, we should see up to 5% growth in several countries as economic activity resumes,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The economist argued that the pandemic had a major impact on the Middle East. However, it has affected different parts of the Arab world in different ways. Egypt, for instance, saw its economy grow last year in spite of Covid-19.<\/p>\n<p>Kotilaine started his address by looking back on the events that impacted the region in the past few years, such as the oil price hike, which was halted by the global financial crisis of 2008. Next came the Arab Spring, and then oil prices plummeted early last year, at which point Covid-19 hit.<\/p>\n<p>The economist argues that the crisis came at a time when the idea of openness was central to several Arab countries, which were pushing to modernize their economies and fuel growth through tourism, investment in logistics and trade, aviation, etc. \u201cThat idea was ultimately tested out by a crisis that brought the hammer down on the notion of globalization,\u201d said Jarmo Kotilaine.<\/p>\n<p>The specialist has published a book on the impact of Covid-19 on Gulf economies (Trials of Resilience \u2013 How Covid-19 is Driving Economic Change in the Arab Gulf). During the online event, he spoke at length on the matter. Kotilaine said the drivers of growth in the Gulf had been losing steam in the past few years, including oil extraction and state-sponsored activity, which led to the Arab infrastructure and real estate booms.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Private sector time<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Amid this conjuncture of lower government spending and slower infrastructure projects, the private sector took on a novel role. \u201cGrowth will have to originate from the private sector and from productivity,\u201d asserts Kotilaine. He said there are three different profiles when it comes to businesses in the region: majors, which are globally active and able to compete in any environment; small and medium businesses, which are the majority; and family-run enterprises.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_288420\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-288420\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-288420 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/jarmo-3-300x173.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"173\" srcset=\"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/jarmo-3-300x173.jpg 300w, https:\/\/anba.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/jarmo-3-1024x591.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/anba.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/jarmo-3-768x443.jpg 768w, https:\/\/anba.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/jarmo-3.jpg 1134w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-288420\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Kotilaine, Mansour and Hannun during the webinar<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Small and medium businesses are mostly in retail and basic services. They have capitalized by spotting opportunities and minimizing costs through cheap labor. Much of local retail did not react well to the crisis, including e-commerce and majors that usually bid in tenders. Some family-run businesses have also failed to develop as corporate entities.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI believe these challenges are very relevant opportunities for people looking to enter these markets with a good standing, capital, and possibly good partnerships, taking advantage of consolidation opportunities,\u201d he said as a suggestion to Brazilian enterprises. \u201cThis is a field in which companies that have faced challenges in Brazil might see great value,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The Covid crisis was the first time businesses across the region began spending more on technology than on cheap labor, the economist said. He believes this could have happened earlier, considering the capital available in the region and its small population. \u201cThis is beginning now, and productivity is going up,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Kotilaine expressed optimism regarding potential lessons from the Covid-19 crisis across the region, even though he concedes that this was a tough, challenging time for many people. \u201cI believe the stars are aligned to support a new mentality in the Gulf, one that\u2019s more focused on innovation and creativity than ever before.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Funds and plans<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Questioned on the matter by ABCC secretary-general Tamer Mansour, Kotilaine said that although Arab sovereign funds will keep investing abroad, there\u2019s much interest in channeling cash towards local endeavors. He mentioned that Saudi Arabia\u2019s Public Investment Fund will keep three quarters of its assets in the country between 2021 and 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Inquired by ABCC president Rubens Hannun as to how the pandemic has affected countries\u2019 strategic plans, such as Saudi Arabia\u2019s Vision 2030 plan, the economist said there have been no fundamental changes. \u201cBut anyone that had any question about the need for change that these plans propounded, the pandemic became proof of this need,\u201d he said, referring mostly to economic diversification away from reliance on oil.<\/p>\n<p>The webinar \u201cPerspectives for the Economy, Innovation and Technology in 2021\u201d also featured a lecture from attorney Ronaldo Lemos, who specializes in information technology. ABCC professionals presented the organization\u2019s 2021 activities calendar. Hannun kicked off the event, and Mansour was the moderator. Stay tuned for more stories on the webinar.<\/p>\n<p>The full event is available on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=MhdghzH1oi0&amp;t=685s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">YouTube<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em>Here\u2019s more on the webinar:<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/countries-need-data-policy-to-develop\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Countries need data policy to develop<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"credits-overlay\" data-target=\".wp-image-288417\">Zoom<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The region\u2019s countries went through the Covid-19 crisis with relative resilience, but they have undergone significant changes, according to the economist Jarmo Kotilaine, who spoke during an Arab Chamber webinar on Thursday (11).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1455,"featured_media":288417,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[114],"tags":[4639,19123],"class_list":{"0":"post-288426","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-camara-arabe-en","9":"tag-varejo-golfo"},"wps_subtitle":"The region\u2019s countries went through the Covid-19 crisis with relative resilience, but they have undergone significant changes, according to the economist Jarmo Kotilaine, who spoke during an Arab Chamber webinar on Thursday (11).","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1455"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=288426"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288426\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/288417"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=288426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=288426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=288426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}