{"id":297594,"date":"2021-08-23T19:37:08","date_gmt":"2021-08-23T22:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/?p=297594"},"modified":"2021-08-26T16:53:04","modified_gmt":"2021-08-26T19:53:04","slug":"drop-in-maize-crop-could-impact-arab-purchases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/drop-in-maize-crop-could-impact-arab-purchases\/","title":{"rendered":"Drop in maize crop could impact Arab purchases"},"content":{"rendered":"

S\u00e3o Paulo \u2013 Estimates for Brazilian maize production anticipate a decline for this year. The latest forecast by the Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB<\/a>) indicates the total output will be 86.6 million tonnes for the 2020\/2021 harvest, a 15.5% decrease over the previous cycle.<\/p>\n

CONAB attributed the reduction to the low rainfall during the months of April and May. The contraction should directly impact exports, including those destined for North African countries, such as Egypt.<\/p>\n

According to Anderson Galv\u00e3o, analyst and CEO of consulting firm C\u00e9leres<\/a>, the initially expected export capacity for the Brazilian product was 40 million tonnes. This amount, however, could be downsized to 18 million. \u201cIt is a cutback of over 50% from the initial volume. For this reason, Egypt and other countries in North Africa and the Middle East, some of the main buyers of Brazilian maize, will have to seek supplies in other countries, such as Ukraine, Romania, and Russia,\u201d explained the consultant.<\/p>\n

Disruption in Latin America<\/strong><\/p>\n

Galv\u00e3o recalls the situation is worsening since another valuable cereal producer in Latin America, Argentina, will also not have enough stock to meet global demand. On the other hand, Brazil will only be able to export in large volumes again next year. \u201cThe supply chain framework in Brazil will only return to normal if everything goes well, in July next year. There will be at least eight months of maize shortage,\u201d pointed out the analyst.<\/p>\n

In Brazil, maize is planted at different times of the year, but the pivotal part of production is concentrated in the winter crop, harvested from July to August. This crop meets international demand since the summer crop does not fully supply even the domestic market.<\/p>\n

For the analyst, even with the likely increase in the planted area in Brazil, the market should only calm down in the medium term. \u201cUntil then, the supply will be very limited. Additionally, this year there is La Ni\u00f1a, which normally brings dry weather to Argentina and the southern part of Brazil, in theory, intensifying the risk of harvest losses once again in 2022 and 2023,\u201d explained Galv\u00e3o. La Ni\u00f1a is the atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon that causes changes in the temperature of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, cooling its waters and altering the distribution of heat and humidity in many parts of the world.<\/p>\n

Attention to the Middle East<\/strong><\/p>\n

The price of maize, which is already at a peak, should also remain high on account of Chicago. \u201cEven with the American crop having increased its planted area, prices will remain close [to what they are now],\u201d said Galv\u00e3o.<\/p>\n