{"id":403054,"date":"2026-02-09T16:51:26","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T19:51:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/?p=403054"},"modified":"2026-02-09T16:51:34","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T19:51:34","slug":"u-s-instability-affects-brazil-and-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anba.com.br\/en\/u-s-instability-affects-brazil-and-the-world\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. instability affects Brazil and the world"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

S\u00e3o Paulo \u2013 Instability in the United States could have repercussions for the Brazilian and global economies this year, said BTG Pactual macroeconomic researcher Samuel Pess\u00f4a during a lecture at the Arab-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce<\/strong> (ABCC<\/a>). The talk, titled \u201cThe Brazilian economy over the past 120 years and the next five years,\u201d opened the ABCC Connects lecture series, focused on perspectives for global economic performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pess\u00f4a, who is also a researcher at think tank FGV Ibre<\/a>, assessed in his presentation the structural challenges to Brazil\u2019s economic growth, this year\u2019s electoral scenario in the country, and how political and economic developments in the U.S. may have positive or negative repercussions on the economy. In 2025, he noted, there was a perception in the U.S. market that President Donald Trump\u2019s political and economic measures created institutional instability while also boosting confidence in the American private sector.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"William
William Dib, president of the Arab-Brazilian Chamber: ABCC Connects offers discussions for those seeking to internationalize operations in Arab countries<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u201cMy assessment is that the depreciation of the U.S. currency is associated with the institutional deterioration taking place in that economy. There\u2019s a president who tries to usurp the prerogatives of other branches of government, attacks the independence of the Central Bank, and is creating problems in domestic defense, and that\u2019s a sign of institutional weakening. So there\u2019s a depreciation of the U.S. dollar, but the stock market is doing very well. People continue to trust the health, sophistication, flexibility, and responsiveness of the American private sector,\u201d he said. According to Pess\u00f4a, one effect of the dollar\u2019s decline on other economies is a global disinflationary wave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pess\u00f4a assessed that this economic performance and these policy measures have also influenced the Brazilian economy, which, in turn, will face challenges to grow from this year onward. Brazil\u2019s gross domestic product expanded by 3.4% in 2024, but the 2025 growth is estimated to have not exceeded 2.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said the outlook is for a \u201csoft landing\u201d of the economy this year, with GDP growth of around 1.8%, and a decline in the IPCA consumer price index growth to about 4% this year, down from 4.26% in 2025. The key Selic rate, currently at 15%, is expected to begin falling in March and, according to market estimates, reach around 12.5% by the end of the year. According to Pess\u00f4a, Brazil\u2019s economy has structural problems that must be addressed for the country to achieve sustainable growth. For this reason, he presented a retrospective of Brazil\u2019s macroeconomic policies over the past 120 years.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Audience
Audience attended lecture addressing the challenges of the Brazilian economy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Overall, Pess\u00f4a outlined problems that affect economic growth and weigh on the country\u2019s capacity to invest and expand. He cited as a challenge the indexation of mandatory minimum spending on health and education. In Brazil, the law requires that health and education expenditures grow in proportion to net revenues. In other words, the higher the country\u2019s revenue, the more funds must be allocated to health and education\u2014equivalent to 15% of net current revenue for health and 18% for education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other challenges highlighted by the researcher were the tax structure\u2014which is expected to generate positive impacts over the coming years as a result of the approval of the tax reform\u2014and the high costs of the pension system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such burdens associated with government decisions contribute to the increase in public debt and to the country\u2019s high interest rates, which discourage investment. When addressing the major challenges facing the Brazilian economy, he said: \u201cThe challenge of our democracy is to create an economic policy framework that delivers growth, reduces inequality, and ensures sustainability. We haven\u2019t managed to achieve that yet.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schedule of activities<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During ABCC Connects, Marina Sarruf, Director of Marketing and Communication at the ABCC, presented the institution\u2019s calendar of activities for this year in Brazil and abroad. On August 4, the 5th<\/sup> edition of the Brazil\u2013Arab Countries Economic Forum will be held in S\u00e3o Paulo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The institution will hold roadshows across Brazil to present the Arab market and the Halal do Brasil project to companies interested in doing business both with Arab countries and with non-Arab Islamic nations. Halal products are those made in accordance with Islamic rules and fit for Muslim consumption. The Halal do Brasil project is spearheaded by the ABCC and the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil) to promote Brazilian halal products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The roadshows will take place in Rond\u00f4nia in May, Rio Grande do Sul in July, Esp\u00edrito Santo in August, Bahia in September, and Cear\u00e1 in October. The Halal project will host a buyer project with Islamic retailers between April 13 and 17 and is offering the free online course \u201cExploring the Halal Market \u2013 Strategies for Exporters.\u201d The project will also take part in two international trade fairs: MIHAS in Malaysia, from September 23 to 26, and Food Africa in Egypt, from December 7 to 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond the Halal project\u2019s activities, the ABCC will take part with its own booth in the food and beverage trade fairs Anuga Select (April 7\u20139) and APAS (May 18\u201321) in Brazil, as well as Horeca (April 21\u201324) in Lebanon. Dedicated to the tourism sector, Horeca will feature both institutional and commercial participation by the ABCC in partnership with the Brazilian Embassy in Beirut. Between January 26 and 30, the institution led companies to Gulfood, the largest food and beverage exhibition in the Middle East, held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another international initiative is the \u201cWhy Brazil?\u201d seminar series. The first edition was held in Bahrain in January, with upcoming editions planned for Kuwait in June, Qatar in October, and Lebanon and Oman in the second half of the year. A multisector trade mission is scheduled for April to Tunisia and Morocco, and another mission, focused on women entrepreneurs through the WAHI Committee, will travel to Jordan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ABCC will address presidential elections in one of the next two editions of ABCC Connects. The other edition, scheduled for March, will focus on tourism. Also in March, Mercosur will be highlighted at another traditional event hosted by the institution\u2014the Breakfast with Members, set for March 10, with the theme \u201cThe Mercosur\u2013European Union Agreement: Impacts on Arab Countries.\u201d Another edition of the Breakfast with Members will take place in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those attending Monday\u2019s ABCC Connects included ABCC President William Adib Dib Jr., Vice President of Foreign Trade Daniel Hannun, Vice President of Communication and Marketing Silvia Antibas, former president and Chairman of the Superior Administrative Council Marcelo Sallum; board members and former presidents Rubens Hannun and Osmar Chohfi; advisor Nadia Younes; and board members Arthur Jafet, William Atui, Riad Younes, and Sami Roumieh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is the first ABCC Connects of 2026. Through ABCC Connects, the ABCC provides a networking environment for companies and professionals active in the Arab world. In addition to fostering connections and enabling the exchange of information on business and opportunities in the region, ABCC Connects aims to offer in-depth discussions on topics of interest to those seeking to internationalize their operations in Arab countries,\u201d Dib said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more:
Gulfood: Strong market, expansion boost sales<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Translated by Guilherme Miranda<\/strong><\/p>\n

Marcelo Brammer\/Arab-Brazilian Chamber<\/div>
Marcelo Brammer\/Arab-Brazilian Chamber<\/div>
Marcelo Brammer\/Arab-Brazilian Chamber<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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