<\/p>\n
São Paulo – The economies of the Middle East and North Africa should grow at lower rates this year than in 2012. According to estimates released this Tuesday (16th) by the World Economic Outlook report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan will be up by an average of 3.1% this year, down 0.3% from the Fund’s October 2012 forecast. For 2014, the growth forecast is 3.7%, down 0.1% from the previous estimate. <\/p>\n
According to the IMF report, the GDPs of oil exporting countries should be up 3.25% this year. In 2012, Middle Eastern oil exporting countries (the report also includes Iran) posted an average growth of 5.75%. The forecast of slower GDP growth this year should be a consequence of diminished global demand for oil and derivatives.<\/p>\n
According to the IMF, oil exporting countries have taken advantage of their growth in preceding years to boost their reserves. Combined with these countries’ low public debt levels, that should enable them to withstand lower growth rates. Still, the Fund advises the governments to exercise restraint when it comes to increasing hard-to-reverse government expenditures, such as wages, so that their economies will be able to withstand a sustained decrease in oil price. <\/p>\n
Despite the challenges facing oil-exporting countries, the IMF admonishes that they do not abandon projects geared at diversifying their economies and creating jobs. The IMF claims these countries need to keep improving their oil production infrastructure, but they must also invest in education, training and the improvement of benefit policies for private sector workers.<\/p>\n
The IMF forecasts that the economy of Iran will be down 1.3%, Saudi Arabia’s will be up 4.4%, Algeria’s will be up 3.3%, the United Arab Emirates’s will be up 3.1%, Qatar’s will be up 5.2%, Kuwait’s will be up 1.1% and Iraq’s will be up 9%. The study does not provide specific data for Bahrain, Oman, Libya and Yemen, but the forecast for oil-exporting countries includes these nations. <\/p>\n
Uncertainty for importers <\/strong> <\/p>\n According to the WEO, oil importing countries have grown by nearly 2% in 2012, slightly above the IMF’s October 2012 forecast. Still, several factors should stifle growth in these countries in 2013. These include political uncertainty in countries undergoing government transitions, the effects of the worsening of the conflict in Syria, weak demand from European trade partners, and persistently high prices of commodities (particularly fuels and foodstuffs).<\/p>\n The report gives assessments of some Arab oil-importing countries. It notes that tourism has picked up in Tunisia and commodities revenues have increased in Mauritania. The report also claims that uncertainty regarding Egypt’s political future have led to low growth and to external and fiscal imbalances. Egypt is negotiating a US$ 4.8 billion loan with the IMF. Last Monday evening (15th), the IMF said in a press release that local authorities have taken invaluable measures with regard to energy subsidies, and that negotiations for a loan agreement are still underway. <\/p>\n Growth in Jordan was hampered by the Syrian crisis and mining strikes. Morocco, in turn, was hindered by the poor performance of the European economy, a lower-than-expected agricultural output, high fuel prices, and heightened pressure on the public and external accounts. Sudan performed well in agriculture, but the country’s economy was kept from growing due to conflicts with South Sudan, and because it lost oil reserves to its new neighbour country.<\/p>\n The IMF forecasts that Egypt’s economy will grow by 2% this year, Morocco’s will grow by 4.5%, Tunisia’s by 4%, Sudan’s by 1.2%, Lebanon’s by 2% and Jordan’s by 3,3%. On average, oil-importing countries should grow by 2.7% this year. The calculation includes Djibouti and Mauritania. Syria was not listed. Libya should grow by 6% or higher. <\/p>\n The world and Brazil <\/strong> <\/p>\n According to the WEO’s general assessment, economic authorities in developed countries have taken measures which prevented the demise of the euro in Europe and the fiscal abyss in the United States. Although it predicts recessions in Italy, Greece, Spain, France, Portugal and Cyprus, and growth rates ranging from 0% to 1% for the United Kingdom, the IMF believes these countries are headed towards economic recovery. <\/p>\n The United States should grow by a lower rate than forecasted previously, but GDP should be up 1.9% this year. China’s economy should be up 8% and Japan’s should be up 1.6%. The IMF claims the Japanese and American governments must not relax their efforts to keep debt and fiscal deficits under control. The Global GDP should be up 3.3% this year and 4% in 2014.<\/p>\n The IMF has also revised down Brazil’s growth forecast. The country is expected to grow by 3% this year and 4% next year. As of last October, the forecasts were 3.5% for 2013 and 3.9% for 2014. The Fund claims consumption has slowed down in Brazil. The growth forecast for this year is due to the federal government’s stimulus measures for the private sector. <\/p>\n *Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum<\/strong><\/p>\n