São Paulo – The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects for this year an increase of 2.8% in the volume of global trade, the same percentage seen in 2015. “On this basis, this will be the fifth consecutive year of sub 3% growth”, said the organization’s director general, Brazilian Roberto Azevêdo, this Thursday (7) in Geneva, in a press conference for the release of data and outlooks on global trade. The organization expects a higher growth, around 3.6%, only in 2017.<\/p>\n
The organization took into account the forecasts on the world’s economy done by other multilateral organizations, 2.4% this year and 2.7% the next year. According to the WTO, exports by developed economies should increase 2.9% in 2016, with developing nations registering 2.8%. On the other hand, imports by the wealthiest countries should increase 3.3%, while developing economies should increase only 1.8%.<\/p>\n
The organization is expecting global exports to be driven by Asia (3.4%), North America (3.1%) and Europe (3.1%), with South and Central America expected to increase shipments in only 1.9%, and with “the other regions” accounting for only 0.4%. Meanwhile, the increase in imports will be driven by North America (4.1%), followed by Asia and Europe (3.2%), with a decline in imports expected in South and Central Americas and other regions.<\/p>\n
Among the risks that could affect negatively the numbers, the WTO mentions the consumers’ confidence, which is down in developed countries, a sharper slowdown in developing economies and the volatility of the global financial market.<\/p>\n
Although the volume of global trade is going up, the WTO emphasizes that the value of operations are in decline due to the dollar appreciation against other currencies and the fall of prices of commodities. Last year, although the volume of traded goods surpassed 2.8% over 2014, the value in dollar of the operations dropped 13% to USSD 16.5 trillion.<\/p>\n
Still in reference to 2015, the organization pointed out that South and Central Americas affected negatively the growth of imports. This occurred especially because of Brazil’s economic downturn, although other countries in the regions also contributed.<\/p>\n
To Azevêdo, the current low growth rate is “atypical”, but warned that a return to high growth rates in a near future is not expected. It’s possible, however, to adopt measures to encourage global trade. <\/p>\n
In this sense, he advised for the member countries of WTO to roll back restrictive measures adopted since the global financial crisis and to ratify the Trade Facilitation Agreement, adopted by the organization in 2013, but that will only go into effect when implemented by a third of the 162 members of the organization. Brazil is one of the countries that already ratified the agreement. <\/p>\n
“Implementing the WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement will cut global trade costs by up to 15%. This is a bigger impact than eliminating every remaining tariff around the world, and it could deliver a trillion dollar boost for global trade”, declared the director general.<\/p>\n
*Translated by Sérgio Kakitani<\/strong><\/p>\n