São Paulo – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released this Wednesday (13) in Washington D.C., forecasts that point to worse outlooks for global and Brazilian economies in the next few years. The “Fiscal Monitor” document is part of the analysis that the Fund does on global and national economies and was presented by the organization this Tuesday (12) with the launch of the World Economic Outlook survey. In the document, the Fund states that the Brazilian economy won’t register a primary surplus (savings to pay interest rates over public debt) before 2020.<\/p>\n
In the document, the Fund predicts that this year Brazil will register a deficit of 1.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), to be followed by deficit of 1.4% of the GDP in 2017, 1% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019. In 2020, the country will register a primary surplus of 0.9% and, in 2021, of 1.6%.<\/p>\n
The reasons responsible for the increase in the Brazilian deficit last year, says the document, were weak revenues, increasing interest rates and “a clean-up of past arrears” in a context of a deepening recession and political turbulence. The document points out that the authorities are committed to reducing the deficit and to approving a limit for public spending. <\/p>\n
In the document, the Fund also lists measures that the countries could adopt to resume growth and solve part of their economic problems. In Brazil’s case, a way to expand investments would be to speed up the program of concessions of ports, airports, railways and highways, reducing the barriers to private sector investments.<\/p>\n
The document’s overall assessment is that the world economy is facing great challenges, since its growth is weak and timid. “The weakening of the global recovery and concerns about the ability of policymakers to provide an adequate and swift policy responses have clouded economic prospects. As a result, risks to the global economy and financial systems have substantially increased. In this difficult environment, fiscal policies must be prepared to respond promptly to support growth and reduce vulnerabilities”, says the document.<\/p>\n
The document forecasts that oil exporting countries in North Africa and the Middle East will register a loss of more than USD 2 trillion in the next five years in comparison to their revenues in the period from 2004 and 2008, in which the prices of the oil barrels reached its peak.<\/p>\n
For the developing countries, the Fund’s suggestion is to adapt their economies to a “more volatile” environment and to more sudden changes in the price of commodities, in capital flows and in foreign exchange rates. The IMF suggests for oil exporting countries to strengthen their fiscal structures and to get ready for a highly volatile global market.<\/p>\n
*Translated by Sérgio Kakitani<\/strong><\/p>\n