São Paulo – Despite the economic crisis and the slowing down of world growth, African countries will continue to grow above average in coming years, and thus promote the social inclusion of their populations. Such is one of the conclusions of study Africa’s Pulse, conducted twice each year and released this Thursday (4th) by the World Bank. The study considers the growth of Sub-Saharan Africa, which does not include Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Algeria or Libya.
The Arab countries covered in the study are Sudan, Somalia, Mauritania, Djibouti and Comoros. According to Africa’s Pulse, the Sub-Saharan countries will grow by 4.8% in 2012. One third of them, however, will grow by at least 6% in the next few years. The study claims African countries are becoming middle-income nations, which are countries whose per capita income exceeds US$ 1,000 according to the World Bank.
Based on that, 22 African countries, with a combined population of 400 million, are already middle-income nations. Other ten countries, with 200 million inhabitants combined, are expected to attain that status by 2025. Seven nations, with a population of 70 million, may come to be middle-income by 2025 provided that they grow at an average of 7% a year until then. Such is the case with Sierra Leone, whose population’s income is growing as a result of increased ore extraction activities.
Another ten countries, with a combined population of 230 million, however, are not expected to attain middle-income nation status, because they are plagued by internal conflicts which hamper their growth.
The African countries already ranked as middle-income, according to the study, are South Africa, Sudan, Mauritania, Senegal, Djibouti, Ivory Coast, South Sudan, Angola, Nigeria and Zambia. Those which are likely to attain the status by 2025 are Kenya, Comoros, Zimbabwe and Chad. Those who need to grow by 7% to attain that level are Mali, Togo and Guinea. Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Tanzania, Niger are the nations which the World Bank claims are unable to become middle-income countries in the next 13 years.
What is causing these countries to grow and should continue to drive their economies, claims the World Bank survey, is the increasing revenues from commodities and exports from countries which have discovered and come to explore mineral reserves recently. In 2010, for instance, 8% of worldwide bauxite production originated from Guinea, 5.8% of gold came from Ghana and Mali, and 6.7% of copper came from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Also according to the study, in 2010, more than 70% of Sudanese exports to the world went to China. The country was also the target of nearly 50% of Mauritanian exports. The main products shipped were oil, from Sudan, and mineral commodities, from Mauritania.
The World Bank’s chief economist for Africa and author of the Africa’s Pulse survey, Shantayanan Devarajan, natural resource-rich African countries must make a “conscious choice” to invest in improvement in healthcare services, education, job creation, and poverty reduction.
Still, African countries are not free from contagion by the crisis now taking place in rich countries. According to the World Bank, the economic slowdown is also affecting major clients of the Africans, such as China. Furthermore, the agricultural areas of the Sahel are prone to plagues. Such is the case with the locust infestation underway in Mali and Niger, and now threatening crops in Mauritania and Chad. In addition to interfering in revenues, the plagues may cause food insecurity in these countries.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
