São Paulo – The economic growth of Africa should speed up this year, while that of the Middle East should slow down. These forecasts are included in report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012, disclosed this week by the United Nations (UN).
According to the study, the growth of the African continent may exceed 2.7% in 2011 to 5% in 2012 and 5.1% in 2013. The advance should be boosted by higher commodity prices, which the Africans export, and by an inflow of capital, especially from Asia, whose demand for raw material and investment in Africa should continue.
In the case of North Africa, the Arab part of the continent, the report shows that political instability may continue affecting economic development, but as the economies of several countries in the region remained stagnated in 2011, or even dropped, there should be growth in 2012, due to the low basis for comparison, in the cases of Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, and to the process for reconstruction of Libya. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Libya dropped 22% last year, according to the study.
At this moment, tourism is the activity most affected by political uncertainty after the Arab Spring. It is worth recalling that Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco have in the sector one of their main sources of income.
In the Middle East, or Western Asia, as the report calls the region, the perspective is for slower growth, at 6.6% in 2011 to 3.7% in 2012. As is the case with North Africa, the development of the Arab Spring should continue causing economic uncertainty.
According to the UN, the Middle East is facing three challenges: continued political instability in the region, especially in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain; the possible lower price of oil due to the economic crisis in Europe, and, in the long term, the need to fight unemployment and diversify the local economies. The rate of unemployment in the region is among the highest in the world.
According to the study, in 2011 the oil exporter countries benefitted with the oil price that has reached a historic peak. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) basket was above US$ 100 per barrel throughout most of the year, against US$ 77 in 2010.
In the Arab nations of the Gulf, governments have issued generous public programs due to the protests of the Arab Spring, especially in Saudi Arabia, which turned 30% of GDP to programs for job generation, greater salaries and consumption, and housing.
Expansion of the GDP of South America, in turn, may decelerate from 4.6% in 2011 to 3.6% in 2012. The economies of the region, including that of Brazil, may be affected by the crisis in Europe, as they were in the second half of last year, and by possible reduction in the rhythm of growth of China.
In general, the UN believes that the world economy should grow by 2.6% in 2012 and 3.2% in 2013, as against 4% in 2010. The emerging countries should still perform above average, with growth perspectives at 5.4% this year and 5.8% in the next one, though much lower than the 7.1% rate recorded in 2010.
In a more pessimistic scenario, according to the report, in which the economies of the European Union and the United States would decline by 1.5% and 0.8%, respectively, then developing countries may be more seriously impacted, due to the strong connection between their financial markets and those of developed nations, and to the likely slowdown of their exports to these markets.
*Translated by Mark Ament & Gabriel Pomerancblum
