Brasília – The estimate for agricultural income this year is for an 8.4% drop in comparison with the results for 2008. In absolute values, income should drop to 149.6 billion Brazilian reals (US$ 66 billion). This represents a 13.7 billion real (US$ 6 billion) drop over the previous period, when income had totalled 163.4 billion reals (US$ 72 billion). The main losses are expected in the maize, soy, coffee and wheat crops.
In a press statement disclosed by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply, the general coordinator of strategic planning, José Garcia Gasques, said that this result reflects two aspects: the lower production of grain due mainly to climate problems in the South and in the midwestern Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul, and to the lower agricultural product prices.
"The effect of these factors is causing farmer income to suffer a strong reduction this year," he said. Still according to Gasques, the estimate for 2009 is close to the income in 2003, which reached 148.5 billion reals (US$ 65.5 billion).
Among the 20 producers analysed, five presented greater income when compared to last year. The greatest growth was in peanuts (31.3%), oranges (13.6%) and rice (12.7%). To the coordinator at the Ministry, these results are due to the greater production or better prices, or, still, a combination of both.
In Gasques’ evaluation, lower income in 2009 is mainly due to the worst performance of important crops in the formation of agricultural income. He explains that the drops in coffee, maize and soy are showing greatly in the total result, as these three crops represent 45.6% of the value of agricultural production. Maize and soy, alone, answer to 38.6%. Thus, the performance of these crops has an unsatisfactory result on the formation of income.
Gasques also pointed out that the lower income in maize and soy is due to climate problems and that in the case of coffee it is due to the two-yearly phenomenon – one year of good production followed by another of lower production, as is the case in the current crop.
Prices were another reason responsible for the lower income. The values used for calculation of the current income are lower than the average prices used for calculation of the income in the previous year.
*Translated by Mark Ament
