Brasília – The estimate of financial market analysts for growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Brazil in 2010 has been expanded from 5%, the figure presented last week, to 5.08%. The percentage of growth of industrial production for next year has also risen, from 7.11% to 8%. Expectations in the Focus bulletin were disclosed by the Central Bank today (28).
The forecasts for economic growth serve as a thermometer to show the demand for company products, as well as to estimate the availability of jobs and the salary perspectives of the labour market.
According to the Focus bulletin, the forecasts for retraction of the GDP in 2009 dropped from 0.23%, the index forecasted in last week’s edition of the bulletin, to 0.22%, in the edition issued today. Expectations for reduction of industrial production in 2009 were kept at 7.62%. Four weeks ago, market expectations for retraction of industrial production this year were 7.72%.
The estimated exchange rates for the end of the period were also maintained stable, both for 2009 (1.74 Brazilian reals per US dollar) and for 2010 (1.75 reals per dollar).
The forecast for the ratio between the public sector net debt and GDP in 2010 rose from 42.90% to 43%, and has been maintained stable for 2009, at 44.80%.
The forecast for the trade surplus (the positive difference between exports and imports) dropped from US$ 25 billion to US$ 24.57 billion this year. For 2010, analysts expect a positive result of US$ 11.65 billion, against the US$ 11.30 billion forecasted previously.
The expected deficit in current account transactions in 2009 (the purchase and sale of goods and services by Brazil on the foreign market) has also been expanded, from US$ 18.20 billion to US$ 19.05 billion. For 2010, the expectation is for a deficit of US$ 40.85 billion, an even greater figure than the US$ 40.35 billion forecasted last week.
The expected foreign direct investment (resources for the productive sector in the country) was maintained at US$ 25 billion in 2009 and US$ 35 billion in 2010.
*Translated by Mark Ament
