Agência Brasil*
Brasília – Market analysts have raised their projection for growth in Brazilian industrial production from 5% to 5.04% this year. The estimate was taken from the Focus bulletin, a weekly publication of the Brazilian Central Bank elaborated by research among 100 financial institutions regarding the leading economic indicators. By late 2009, a 4.5% growth is expected, the same rate as in the previous estimate.
Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country, a 4.5% growth projection for 2008 has been maintained for 11 weeks now. For 2009, the estimate has decreased from 4.03% to 4%, and projections have been decreasing for two weeks now.
The analysts have not changed their projection for the debt-to-GDP rate, which has stood at 41.60% for two weeks now.
As for the trade surplus, i.e., exports minus imports, the estimate has been reduced from US$ 30 billion to US$ 29 billion by the end of the current year. The forecast for foreign direct investment (FDI) has remained at US$ 29 billion for 2008.
The analysts have reduced their projection for the exchange rate this month from 1.70 reals to 1.69 reals. For the whole of the year, the projection was reduced from 1.79 reals to 1.78 reals. Estimates have been decreasing for two weeks now.
The current account surplus, which involves all foreign commercial and financial transactions, should end the year at a negative result (deficit) of US$ 8.10 billion, whereas the projection for the previous week was US$ 8 billion. For next year, the estimated deficit has been readjusted from US$ 12 billion to US$ 12.8 billion.
Market analysts maintain their forecast that the basic interest rate (Selic) should remain unchanged throughout 2008. The Selic now stands at 11.25% per year. For 2009, a 10.5% rate is expected by the end of the year.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
