São Paulo – The countries of the Middle East and North Africa should grow on average 4.1% this year and 4.2% next year, according to the World Economic Outlook report, disclosed this week by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The study shows that the region resisted the international financial crisis relatively well and that their economies continued to recover, but at different rhythms in each country.
"Higher commodity prices and external demand are boosting production and exports in many economies in the region," according to the study, referring to the nations that produce oil. Apart from that, according to the IMF, state subsidies are still contributing to the economic activity of these countries.
At the same time, however, the Fund recalls that political uncertainty, unemployment and greater food prices are causing turmoil in the countries of the region, which should result in stunting of short term growth in the economies.
In the first case, that of the oil exporters, the IMF estimates average growth of 5% this year, with Qatar in the lead, growing 20%. The country, according to the report, should benefit from the continued growth of production of natural gas and large direct investment. For 2012, the forecast is for 7.1% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
In Saudi Arabia, the main economy in the region, the Fund expects growth of 7.5% of GDP in 2011 and 3% next year. Support, in this case, should come from state investment in the area of infrastructure.
Included in the second case, Egypt should grow just 1% this year and 4% in 2012, as against 5.1% in 2010. The IMF worked on the forecasts taking into consideration the impact the political crisis will have on tourism, one of the main economic activities of Egypt, and on the flow of capitals into the financial market. The study points out, however, that this effect should be temporary.
In Tunisia, a country that also has in tourism one of its main sources of income, growth of 1.3% is expected this year, and 5.6% next, as against 3.7% in 2010. As was the case with Egypt, the IMF took into consideration the impacts the Tunisian crisis should have on tourism and on the attrition of foreign investment.
It is worth recalling that the protests that resulted in the resignation of then Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali were the first wave of protests that then spread throughout other Arab countries.
Despite the different rhythm of growth and the moment of political instability, the Fund does not see possible retraction in any of the economies of the region. The lowest rate of estimated GDP growth this year among the Arab nations evaluated by the IMF is for Egypt.
*Translated by Mark Ament
