São Paulo – The populations of Arab countries, especially in the Middle East, rank among the world’s most optimistic about a recovery from the global economic crisis. The information is part of a study conducted by the Worldwide Independent Network of Market Research (Win), which works in partnership with Ibope Intelligence in Brazil. In the survey, people in 25 different countries were interviewed. In the Arab world, five nations were polled, four of which had the largest number of people who believe that the economy of their country is going to improve over the next three months. They were interviewed in February and March.
In Qatar, the nation with the highest rate of optimistic people, 45% of the population believes that the economy is going to improve, and only 17% believes that it should worsen. In Kuwait, 40% expect a recovery. The country with the third highest rate of optimistic people, 35%, is Brazil, followed by Saudi Arabia with 29% and the United Arab Emirates with 28%. Lebanon, another Arab country polled, is the sixth in the ranking. Among the Lebanese population, 26% believe that the economy will rebound in three months.
“Most banks in the Arab countries were less exposed to foreign influences, therefore the crisis had less of an impact on the region than, say, in Europe and the United States,” explains the Market Development manager of the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, Rodrigo Solano. Thus, the population has not felt the impact of the crisis too strongly. “Several Arab nations also had a liquidity surplus during the years of bonanza, and they invested their liquidity wisely,” says Solano.
In addition to being optimistic about economic performance, the populations of the five Arab countries believe in the improvement of their personal income as well. The survey by the Win Network, by the way, shows that the Middle East has the closest relation between the two items. Qatar boasts the second highest rate of people – 44% – who believe in the recovery of their own income. Saudi Arabia is tge fourth in the list, com 34%. In Kuwait, 30% are expecting better earnings, in the Emirates, 27%, and in Lebanon, 26%.
Deep pockets
The greater optimism regarding the future of the local economy is a reflection of economies less affected by the crisis. So much so that cut backs in spending by people in the Arab countries surveyed were much lower than in other regions of the world. The Qataris were the ones that reduced spending on entertainment the least, for example. They figure last in the ranking, with only 23%. The Arabs are among the eight countries with the lowest rates of reduction in spending on entertainment. In the United States, which tops the list, 69% of the population has reduced spending on entertainment.
The poll included questions about cut backs on spending on telephony, Internet, cable television, foodstuffs, commuting, clothing, and footwear, among others. In all fields, there are Arabs ranking among the ten with the lowest rates. In other words, with the lowest percentage of people who reduced spending on those items. In foodstuff and clothing, for instance, the five Arab nations surveyed are among the last ten in the ranking. In commuting to work, four Arab countries appear, in telephony there are three, and in Internet there three Arab nations as well.
The results of the survey explain the optimism in regions such as Middle East, India, Brazil and China. “These are developing economies that are either part of the BRIC (a group comprised of the world’s main emerging countries) – or oil-driven (despite the price reduction). These are economies that are expanding, gaining strength in the international market, and many have large populations, which helps maintain domestic consumption,” claims the survey. The recent growth of these economies, according to the survey, contributes to the optimism.
*Translated by Gabriel Blum
