São Paulo – The Middle East and North Africa (collectively known as the MENA region) are the most optimistic regions regarding foreign trade perspectives in the coming six months, according to information disclosed on Sunday (8th) by the HSBC bank. The Trade Confidence Index, measured by the institution, reached 118 points in the first quarter, whereas the global average reached 114. Figures above 100 indicate confidence.
According to the bank, foreign trade operators from the two regions generally do not expect a decline in trade and do not believe transactions will be threatened by the political scenario in the Arab world. Roughly 80% of interviewees believe that the volume of trade should remain at current levels or even increase. According to the HSBC, the rate is five points higher than in the survey conducted in the second half of 2010.
“In the region, trade has traditionally played a critical role in driving economic growth, buoyed by its growing importance as a global hub for East-West trade,” said the head of Commercial Banking of the HSBC for the MENA region, Tim Reid, according to a press statement issued by the bank. “Energy exports out of MENA contribute a significant amount to GDP in many countries around the region, and with the oil price remaining high, purchasing power and infrastructure spend is expected to remain strong in the region in the medium term, supporting this trend in the medium term,” he added.
Saudi Arabia ranked second among the most optimistic countries regarding foreign trade, at 132 points, 14 more than in the previous survey, second only to India. The Saudi saw the highest increase in confidence out of the markets surveyed.
The United Arab Emirates ranks sixth with 121 points. Despite a four-point decline compared with the report from the second half of last year, 85% of interviewees from the country expect trade to grow or at least remain at current levels. According to the HSBC press statement, the Emirati minister of Foreign Trade, Lubna Al Qasimi, claimed that she expects a 20% increase in transactions this year.
Egypt, which ranked 19th, with 102 points, appears for the first time in the survey, which is currently in its fifth edition. According to the HSBC, 70% of Egyptian operators expect trade to increase or remain at current levels, and 68% are optimistic regarding the global economy.
“Trade health remains solid around the world, displaying resilience to rising prices, interest rate increases and inflationary issues,” said Kersi Patel, regional head of Trade and Supply Chain at HSBC, according to the statement. “These results show that trade flourishes in an environment where trade finance is readily available from the banks, combined with a proactive and fair regulatory environment. The MENA results show that traders operating in the Middle East continue to view government regulation as a positive influence on regional trade flows, and their corresponding business growth,” she added.
According to the bank, the survey was conducted in 21 countries in different regions. Brazil ranks 8th with 116 points. A total of 6,390 exporters, importers and traders were interviewed.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
