Brasília – Financial institutions revised down for the ninth time in a row their forecast for Brazilian economy growth this year. The estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth went down from 1.71% to 1.70% this year. Four weeks ago, the estimate was 1.98%. For 2020, it remains at 2.50% and for 2021 and 2022 it also remains at 2.50%.
These are the numbers at the Focus Readout, a weekly survey with forecasts by financial institutions for the main economic indicators. The readout is released every Monday by the Central Bank of Brazil (BC, acronym in Portuguese) in Brasília.
The inflation forecast, calculated by the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA, acronym in Portuguese), remained at 4.01% this year. For 2020, it remains at 4%. For 2021 and 2022, it didn’t change either: 3.75%. BC’s main instrument to control inflation is the base interest rate, SELIC. For the financial market, SELIC is expected to remain at its historical minimum of 6.5% until the end of 2019. For the end of 2020, the projection remains at 7.50%. For the end of 2020 and 2021, the expectation remains at 8%.
The forecast for the dollar remains at BRL 3.75 at the of this year and was revised down from BRL 3.80 to BRL 3.79 at the end of 2020.
Translated by Guilherme Miranda
