Rio de Janeiro – The Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) made public on Wednesday (14) its forecasts for Brazil’s trade balance this year. According to the AEB, exports could fetch about USD 270.052 billion, a 28.7% increase from the USD 209.817 billion in 2020, and imports would reach approximately USD 202.051 billion, up 27.1% from the USD 158.930 billion achieved in 2020.
The organization estimates a USD 68.001 billion surplus, 33.6% greater than the USD 50.887 billion calculated last year. If confirmed, the chief executive of the AEB, José Augusto de Castro, states that this will be the new record, excelling the 2017 surplus of USD 67 billion. The trade flow, projected at USD 472.103 billion for 2021, will be close to the current record of USD 482.292 billion obtained in 2011.
The AEB states the projected increases for exports and imports will reflect positively in the calculation of 2021’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The organization’s previous forecast for Brazilian foreign trade, made in December 2020, had lower estimates for foreign sales and international purchases.
According to Castro, the sharp rise in commodity prices, especially oil and iron ore, explains the projected growth in exports. The share of crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans in the Brazilian export balance rose from 35% last year to 41% this year. On the import side, the fact that several products are not currently being manufactured in the country to supply domestic demand, such as parts and components, accounts for the increase in foreign sales to Brazil, said Castro to Agência Brasil.
Translated by Elúsio Brasileiro
