Brasília – A well-balanced distribution of rains in areas of greater production and the good performance of maize and soy continue to increase expectations concerning the harvest of the current crop. The eighth survey of the 2009/2010 grain crop, disclosed today (6th) by the National Food Supply Company (Conab), estimates an output of 146.81 million tonnes, which should set a new record, with two months to go before the end of the cycle.
The projection is 8.7% greater than the 135.13 million tonnes harvested in the 2008/2009 cycle, and 0.4% larger than the survey disclosed last month. Together, soy and maize will account for approximately 122 million tonnes, or 83.1% of the entire crop.
Soy should total 67.8 million tonnes, 18.7% or 10.7 million tonnes more than in the previous cycle. Maize, in turn, should total 54.18 million tonnes, representing growth of 6.2%.
The total area planted with grain is 47.5 million hectares, a reduction of 172,100 compared with the previous cycle. The survey was conducted by Conab technicians, who interviewed representatives of cooperatives and rural unions, public and private organizations in all states of Brazil, from April 22nd to 28th.
In Rio de Janeiro, the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE) also presented a projection of a record-breaking crop for this year, at 146.5 million tonnes, representing growth of 9.4% over the 2009 crop, which totalled 133.9 million tonnes. The result, according to the IBGE, should be 0.4% higher than the previous record high, recorded in 2008, at 145.9 million tonnes. In 2010, the state of Paraná should surpass Mato Grosso to regain its position as the country’s leading producer of grain, leguminous and oleaginous plants.
The discrepancy be the data disclosed by the IBGE and the Conab is due to the periods surveyed. The institute surveys the crop from January to December, whereas the state-owned company adopts the so-called crop-year, which runs from August to July.
The IBGE forecasts an increase of 0.1% over the area planted last year, with a total harvest of 47.3 million hectares. The estimate is that the three main cultures – rice, maize and soy (which account for 82.3% of the area planted) – should vary by -5.0%, 5.9% and 6.5%, respectively, compared with last year. According to the IBGE, maize and soy production should grow by 4.0% and 19.2%, respectively, whereas rice production should drop by 9.7%.
Region-wise, grain production should be distributed as follows: South, 62.2 million tonnes; Midwest, 51 million tonnes; Southeast, 16.5 million tonnes; Northeast, 12.9 million tonnes; and North, 3.9 million tonnes. In comparison with the last crop, there should only be a decrease, of 4.0%, in the Southeast. The remaining regions of Brazil will record increases in grain production: North, by 3.2%; Northeast, by 9.6%; South, by 18.7%; and Midwest, by 4.4%.
The state of should regain its status as the country’s leading producer of grain, surpassing by 1.5% the state of Mato Grosso, which took the lead last year, as the crop in Paraná was severely affected by unfavourable weather conditions, including rains in early 2009, frost in June, and excessive rains during the final period of winter crops.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
