Brasília – Brazil’s 2014-2015 grain harvest should range from 194 million to 201.6 million tonnes. The estimated percentage change from the previous crop may vary from -0.7% to 3.2%. These estimates are part of the first survey of grain output, disclosed this Thursday (9th) by the National Supply Company (Conab, in the Portuguese acronym).
“These are tentative figures, but they provide the parameters for the private sector to work with,” said the Agriculture Ministry’s Agricultural Policy secretary Seneri Kernbeis Paludo. As this is the first survey, changes in productivity are likely to take place over the next months due to weather conditions.
According to Conab’s president Rubens Medeiros dos Santos, although this is the first survey, the country maintains its estimate of a record crop exceeding 200 million tonnes, but this will depend on a number of factors. “The first is the weather issue: [data seem to indicate] normal [weather conditions; then there is] the credit issue and [lastly, there is also] the addition of agricultural technology bundles, mainly in soy crops,” he said.
The soy crop remains a highlight. “We have observed that the area for first crop maize is switching to soy, [whose output may reach] nearly 92.5 million tonnes,” Medeiros added.
According to the Conab, the larger soy crop requires consideration, since there is a surplus of soy available on the international market, and this drives down price expectations. Another factor to be considered is rising productivity, since Brazil is repeatedly breaking new output records without significantly increasing crop areas.
The 2014/2015 crop is estimated to cover from 56.23 million to 58.34 million hectares, which may account for a drop of 1.2% or an increase of 2.5% from 56.94 million hectares in the 2013/2014 crop. Soy will play an important role in this scenario, with an expected increase in planted area ranging from 1.4% to 5.5%, or 426,800 to 1,663,600 hectares.
The survey was conducted between September 21st to 27th in partnership with agronomists, cooperatives, agriculture secretariats, technical assistance organizations, financial agents, input retailers and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça
