Brasília – A slight increase in exports and a decrease in imports of products whose prices have cooled in recent months have led the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services to project a record trade surplus for 2023. The latest estimate, this year’s third, predicts a USD 93 billion surplus after a previous projection of USD 84.7 billion.
The government’s projection is updated quarterly. If confirmed, the surplus would be 51.2% higher than the positive balance of USD 61.525 billion recorded in 2022, the best historical result.
The trade balance is expected to rise, driven by imports dropping more than exports compared to 2022 results. The Brazilian government expects exports worth USD 334.2 billion in 2023, a slight 0.02% increase from the USD 334.1 billion last year. On the other hand, imports are expected to close at USD 241.1 billion, an 11.5% decrease from the USD 272.6 billion purchased from abroad in 2022.
The Ministry of Development’s undersecretary for Foreign Trade Intelligence and Statistics, Herlon Brandão, attributed the upped projection to the robust export performance despite the decline in some commodities prices. Regarding imports, the undersecretary explained that the drop is mainly due to the reduction in the purchase of intermediate goods. Imports of capital goods and consumer goods increased by 9.9% year-to-date.
According to the Ministry of Development, two factors drive the record balance in 2023. On the one hand, prices of energy commodities such as oil and items such as fertilizers are on a downward trend after peaking at the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, the slowdown in the economy could cause a drop in imports due to the decline in consumption.
Translated by Elúsio Brasileiro
