São Paulo – Exports exceeded imports in USD 6.121 billion in October, reported the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC) this Thursday (01). This is the best surplus for the month since the beginning of the historical series in 1989. The result stands 17.9% above the result of October of last year.
Exports in October totaled USD 22.226 billion, up 12.4% over the same month of last year based on the daily average. Imports totaled USD 16.105 billion, also up 12.4% based on the daily average.
Despite the record high seen in October, the year-to-date trade surplus continues to shrink. In 2018’s ten first months, exports exceeded imports in USD 47.721 billion, a decline of 18.4% in comparison to the same period of last year.
The shrinking of the trade surplus is due particularly to the recovery seen in imports, which surged 20.6% over 2017’s first ten months based on the daily average, against an increase of 8% in exports by the same criteria. Due to the improvement of production and consumption, imports recovered over the last few years.
Last month, the increase in exports was driven by basic goods, with sales going up 26% over October 2017. Exports of semi-finished products went up 3%; while sales of finished products climbed 5.5%. The surge in imports was driven by fuels and lubricants, with purchases climbing 24.2%; intermediate goods (11.2%); capital goods, machinery and equipment for manufacturing (11.1%); and consumer goods (7.8%).
Last year, Brazil saw a trade surplus of USD 67 billion, the best ever in the historical series. MDIC kept unchanged its forecast that 2018’s trade surplus will be of, approximately, USD 50 billion.
The financial market’s forecasts are more optimistic. According to the Focus Bulletin, a weekly survey conducted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) with the market, the country will see a trade surplus of USD 56 billion in the year.
The result is in line with the BC’s official forecasts. In its last Inflation Report, released in September, BC forecasts a 2018 trade surplus of USD 55.3 billion, with exports totaling USD 231 billion and imports reaching USD 175.7 billion.
Translated by Sérgio Kakitani
