Brasília – The forecast of market analysts for the growth of the economy of Brazil this year has been expanded from 7.09% to 7.34%, according to the Focus bulletin, disclosed today (6) by the Central Bank of Brazil (BC). For 2011, the expected expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was maintained at 4.5%.
Last Friday (3), the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE) informed that the GDP of Brazil grew a record 8.9% in the first half of this year as against the same period in 2009. According to the institute, part of this growth may be explained by the first half of last year (the basis for comparison) having presented a record contraction of 1.9%. In the second quarter of this year, the economy grew 1.2%, as against the previous three months. The expansion in the second quarter of 2010 was 8.8%, in comparison with the same period in 2009.
The Focus bulletin also includes the estimated growth in industrial production, revised down from 11.47% to 11.37%, in 2010. For next year, the forecasted growth was maintained at 5%.
The projection for the ratio between the GDP and the public sector’s net debt rose from 40.73% to 40.80%, in 2010, and was maintained at 39.50% in 2011.
The exchange rate estimate for the end of the year has dropped from 1.80 to 1.79 Brazilian reals for every US$ 1, for 2011, the estimate is that each American dollar should cost 1.83 reals, as against a previous estimate of 1.85 reals. The estimate for the trade balance surplus (the difference between exports and imports) was maintained at US$ 15 billion this year, but the forecast for next year was increased from US$ 8.18 billion to US$ 8.68 billion in 2011.
For the current account deficit (the result of purchase and sale of goods and services between Brazil and the rest of the world), the forecast was increased from US$ 49.96 billion to US$ 50 billion, for this year, and remained at US$ 58 billion for 2011.
The expected foreign direct investment (funds to be turned to the productive sector in the country) remained at US$ 30 billion, this year, and at US$ 38 billion in 2011.
*Translated by Mark Ament
