Agência Brasil*
Brasília – The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which provides the parameters for the Brazilian federal government to set its inflation goals, should end 2008 at 4.44%, according to the Focus bulletin. A weekly publication of the Brazilian Central Bank, the bulletin is elaborated based on a survey conducted every week among analysts from 100 financial institutions with regard to the leading economic indicators. The estimate is the same as that of the bulletin disclosed last Monday (17).
For the next 12 months, the projection was revised up from 4.29% to 4.33%. Inflation this month should reach 0.35% and 0.32% in April. In the southeastern Brazilian state of São Paulo, the estimate for the Consumer Price Index, measured by the Economic Research Institute Foundation (Fipe), was also maintained at 3.99% for 2008. In the 12-month period, market analysts are expecting an inflation rate of 4.06%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points. For the months of March and April, the forecast was maintained at 0.30%.
Variation of prices set by contract or monitored (fuels, electric power, telephony, medication, education, urban transport and others) rose from 3.50% to 3.53% in 2008.
Projections for the wholesale market this year are high. The estimate for the General Price Index-Internal Availability (IGP-DI) stood at 5.42%, as against 5.20% for the previous estimate. The estimated General Market Price Index (IGP-M) rate is 5.43%, as against a previous projection of 5.36%.
Over a 12-month period, market analysts expect that the IGP-DI should remain at 4.79%, 0.20 percentage points more than the previous estimate. During the same period, analysts have revised the projection for the IGP-M up from 4.56% to 4.64%. In the month of March, the IGP-DI is expected to close at 0.55% and the IGP-M, at 0.50%. The projections for April are 0.35% and 0.40%, respectively.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
