Rio de Janeiro – Brazilian trade balance should close the year at a US$ 2 billion deficit. The estimate was presented late afternoon this Monday (16th), at the Situational Analysis Seminar, by the Brazilian Institute of Economy of the Foundation Getúlio Vargas (Ibre-FGV)’s Macro Bulletin general coordinator, Regis Bonelli. The change in prospect, according to the researchers of Ibre, should take place with steeper imports slowdown, driven by stronger economic activity and increase in oil output.
“We have seen some improvement in the margin of [oil output increase], but we would need to have a bigger surprise than what we have observed. We probably won’t have a surplus this year,” said Ibre’s researcher, Sílvia Matos. Year-to-date through May, trade balance shows a deficit of US$ 4.85 billion, as a result of US$ 90.1 billion in exports and US$ 94.9 billion in imports.
As regards the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the forecast is to have a growth of 1.6%, with inflation rates at 6.7%. Economist Salomão Quadros, also from Ibre, informed the government-set prices such as fuel, which were kept under a tight control last year, should close the year up 5.8%. For 2015 there is the prospect of an electric energy price adjustment. “This will be hard to control, as the contracts allow the costs to be passed on,” he said.
In spite of the negative scenario, economist Regis Bonelli said one of the important messages brought by the evaluations presented at the seminar is that the risk is not in the exterior sector, a factor which has always threatened Brazilian growth. “It is more up to us than up to the world to solve the problems. Every time we needed in the past, we were denied funding and forced to have disorderly adjustments,” he said.
Bonelli said perspectives, though not good for this year, do not pose a catastrophe. “For next year our [GDP] forecast is a little worse than this year’s, but we have good expectations it will improve from there on,” he analysed. For 2015, Ibre’s prospect is that the economic activity growth to be around 1.2%, with inflations rate at 6.8%.
*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça
