São Paulo – With the discovery of new oil reserves in the pre-salt layer, in 2030, with daily production of 3.4 million barrels, Brazil should become the sixth main global producer of oil, only behind Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Iran and Canada. This information is included in the World Energy Outlook 2009, by the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which the country is the third main country in terms of expansion of forecasted production, 2.9% a year from 2008 to 2030.
According to the study, the growth in production should only lose to that of Iraq, expected to reach 4.8% a year, mainly due to investment in the exploration of the existing reserves and to the 5.4% annual expansion expected for Canadian production. According to BBC Brazil, the most recent The World Factbook study, compiled by the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency), shows that Brazil is currently in the 13th position in the global ranking of producers, with daily production of 2.4 million barrels.
The IEA expects annual growth of around 1% in global oil demand by 2030, despite the lower demand among developed nations. According to the organisation’s report, in 2009, global consumption of energy should drop for the first time since 1981, due to the global economic crisis. But the agency says that, if the current development policies are maintained, consumption should rapidly return to its long-term growth tendency, accompanying the economic recovery.
The report points towards an annual increase of 1.5% in the global consumption of energy between 2007 and 2030, totalling growth of 40% in the period. The main boosters for this growth in demand, according to the IEA, would be the countries in Asia (including China and India), followed by countries in the Middle East.
Despite the growth in production of cleaner alternative energies, the IEA forecasts that oil should continue as the world’s main source of energy up to 2030 – participation of oil should only drop from 34% to 30% of total energy.
Investment against emissions
The IEA report also warns to the fact that the world should face climate change. According to the agency, the world needs to invest US$ 10.5 trillion in the energy sector between 2010 and 2030 to reach the objective of limiting global emissions of greenhouse gas and avoid global temperatures rising by over 2ºC.
The report warns that each year of delay in reaching an agreement to limit emissions should consume US$ 500 billion in investment. Still, according to the agency, if this delay is by a few years, it will be impossible to limit the growing temperature by 2ºC.
Next month, global leaders should meet for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, in Copenhagen, Denmark, to try to reach an agreement to limit emissions.
There is greater and greater consensus regarding the need to limit the rising global temperature by up to 2ºC, beyond which point the climate change may become irreversible. But there are still great doubts with regard to the best way to reach this objective. To the IEA, "with each year, the window for actions regarding emissions becomes narrower, and the cost of transformation of the energy sector rises."
"A critical ingredient for the success of the efforts to prevent climate change should be the speed with which the governments act on their engagements. The salvation of the planet cannot wait,” said the agency, in its report.
* With information from BBC Brazil
