Brasília – The optimism of Brazilians has increased for the third consecutive month, according to the National Consumer Expectation Index (Inec), disclosed this Friday (6th) by the National Confederation of Industries (CNI). From June to July, there was growth of 1.8%, and the index reached 116.8 points. The Inec’s historical average is 108.9 points. The index’s basis is fixed at 100 points. Figures higher than 100 indicate positive expectations.
This is the second highest index since 2001, after the figure recorded in December 2009 (117.2 points). According to CNI economist Marcelo Azevedo, the record high was prompted by new year expectations and by consumers, who were starting to believe that the world financial crisis, which had begun in 2008, was already being overcome.
Six indicators were analyzed in the survey: expectations regarding inflation, unemployment, personal income, financial situation, indebtedness, and purchase of higher value goods. Most Brazilians believe there should be a decline in unemployment, which became clear because the unemployment expectation rate grew the most, compared with June. The indicator increased by 4.4% and reached 132.5 points.
The CNI highlights that there was an increase of 3.1% in the family indebtedness indicator, which reached the highest figure ever. This, according to the organization, shows that consumer indebtedness is the lowest since 2001. According to Marcelo Azevedo, the result is noteworthy because it shows that consumers must be adjusting their cash flows.
He explains that the index had been increasing since early this year due to the withdrawal of fiscal benefits that caused automobiles and durable goods to be consumer earlier in the year. With regard to personal income, optimism increased by 2.9% compared with June. The expectation of improvement in financial situation rose by 0.8%.
The Inec interviewed 2,002 people from July 23rd to 27th. The survey is monthly and was elaborated by the CNI with support from Ibope Inteligência.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
