Rio de Janeiro – The Brazilian population should reach its peak in 2030, at 206.8 million people. From then on, the figure is expected to start declining in absolute terms, and by 2040 it should be 204.7 million. The conclusion is part of a survey disclosed this Wednesday (13th) by the Applied Economic Research Institute (Ipea, in the Portuguese acronym), based on data from the 2009 National Household Sample Survey (Pnad) of the Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute (IBGE).
According to the Ipea’s analysis, the slowing down of population growth, a trend that has taking place in the country since the 1970s, may be explained by reduced mortality rates accompanied by lower fertility rates. This trend may lead to significant changes in the age structure of the population, which may "decrease starting in 2010 and become super-aged, as is the case with several Western European countries, Russia, Japan, etc." The survey highlights that this trend in Brazil is taking place "at a fast pace."
The fertility rate in 2009 remained at the same level as in the two previous years, at 1.8 child per woman, much lower than the so-called replacement level (2.0). The Ipea’s technicians estimate that the average population growth rate this year should be 0.9% a year, less than one third of the rate recorded in the 1950-1970 period (3.0% per year), when the Brazilian population had the highest growth rates ever.
The survey underscores that Brazilian women with higher income have "extremely low" (1.0 child per woman), lower than in countries such as Italy, Spain and Japan.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
