Brasília – Brazilians remain optimistic regarding the social and economic situation in the country, shows study Family Expectation Index (IEF), disclosed on Monday (10) by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea). Despite the September index (63.1 points) being 2.1 points lower than the August index, the evaluation is that Brazilians are still optimistic.
The slight reduction in the national average reflected lower regional indices as against August in the North, Northeast and Southeast. The North presented reduction of 4.1 points, to 57.1 points in September, the lowest average registered since the index was established, marking the return of family expectations from optimistic to moderately optimistic, similar to the result for July.
In the time being, the South and Midwest presented greater optimism. The region had expansion of 4.3 points in comparison with the previous month and returned to a level of over 60 points, rising from moderately optimistic to optimistic. The Midwest is still the region where families are most optimistic, with 74.9 points, 1.9 point more than in August.
Produced by Ipea since August last year, the IEF shows the perception of Brazilian families regarding the social and economic situation in the Country for the coming 12 months and for the five subsequent years. The research covers themes like the national economic situation, the past and future financial conditions, consumption decisions, debt and chance of paying debts and overdue bills, labour market, especially in the matters of safety, occupation and future feeling regarding professional improvement.
The IEF is a monthly statistical research through sampling in 3,810 homes in over 200 cities in the country, and the error margin is 5%. The family expectation rate ranges from 0 to 100 and follows the following classifications: great pessimism, 0 to 20 points; pessimism, from 20 to 40 points; moderate, 40 to 60 points; optimistic, from 60 to 80 points, greatly optimistic, from 80 to 100 points.
Financial situation
The study also shows that 71.9% of Brazilian families said they were better off financially speaking than they were one year ago, a percentage slightly lower than that identified in the previous month (73.8%). This reduction is verified in the greater proportion of families that believe they have worsened financially, from 22.7% to 23.7%.
The Midwest remained optimistic regarding the financial improvement as against the previous year (83.5%), with almost 10 percentage points more than the second best region, the Southeast (73.8%). Whereas the Midwest presented elevation of almost four percentage points over the month of August, the Southeast dropped from 79.2% to 73.8%.
Regarding expectations about the financial situation of families for next year, the North is the region that remains most optimistic (92.7%), despite a light reduction as against the figures for September 2010 (94.7%).
The research also shows that, in the same period, the Midwest, which has been showing itself to be the most optimistic region, demonstrated a considerable leap in positive expectations regarding the financial situation of families for the next 12 months, rising from 71.6% to 92.6% from September 2010 to September 2011.
The national average regarding the situation of families for next year (77.8%) and rates for the South (70.3%), Southeast (75.2%) and Northeast (77.4%) present reductions as against the previous months. The most expressive reductions were 6.2 percentage points, registered in the Southeast. The South remained the most optimistic region as to the financial situation of families for the next 12 months, says the study.
*Translated by Mark Ament
