Copenhagen (Denmark) – The first draft of an eventual agreement at the World Climate Conference, in Copenhagen, preserves the commitments made by the countries that signed the Kyoto Protocol, which forces wealthy nations to set greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.
With regard to the United States, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in history and which did not sign Kyoto, the proposal hints at the elaboration of a new agreement, so that the North Americans will also have targets for fighting global warming.
With regard to developing countries, the draft text proposes the format championed by Brazil, with mitigating actions designed to contain the projected increase in emissions by 2020, in case nothing is done to change the methods used to achieve economic growth.
Once passed, the two proposals would force wealthy countries to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse effect-causing gases within 11 years, compared with the level of emissions in 1990. The rate of reduction is yet to be defined: 25% or 40%.
"Developed countries must make an individual or joint commitment to reducing emissions up until 2020, based on the level of emissions in 1990. The efforts of developed nations need to be comparable, measurable, and must take into consideration the national circumstances and historic responsibility,” according to the document.
For the first time, an official draft from the conference considers the possibility of having developed countries collaborate with the fund for fighting global warming, and even sets a potential target for said countries to reduce the emissions projected for 2020, in case nothing is done to change the model of economic growth: from 15% to 30% by 2020.
The proposal also contemplates the possibility of demanding higher targets from rich and developing countries in order to ensure that emissions are reduced by up to 95% in 2050, compared to the levels recorded in 1990. Thus, average temperature in the planet would increase by only 1.5 degrees Celsius (ºC) until the end of the century.
These figures, however, are still being analyzed by the negotiators, and the rate of reduction until the mid-century varies from 50% to 95%. The minimum accepted is an increase of 2 ºC in the planet’s temperature by 2100.
The money
Funding to actions for fighting climate change in developing countries is one of the main points missing in the draft agreement presented this Friday at the COP-15.
Even among wealthy countries, there is no consensus regarding the volume of funds that should be allocated to poorer regions. The money, pooled in a fund, would be used by developing nations in projects for addressing climate change.
European leaders are willing to offer approximately US$ 9 billion over the next three years, but are having trouble convincing representatives of the poorer countries. So far, Britain has offered around US$ 1.2 billion and Sweden, US$ 1.1 billion. The Netherlands, in turn, wants to provide US$ 4.4 million, and Denmark, little over US$ 2 million.
Developing countries demand figures ranging from US$ 100 billion to US$ 200 billion per year – but so far, the discussion points to the establishment of an initial fund worth US$ 10 billion in the next three years. Important EU countries, such as Germany and France, have not submitted their final proposals yet.
One of the major decision-making locations is Brussels, where a European Union summit is being held. In the Belgian capital, negotiators spent the evening trying to agree on a figure to be presented in Copenhagen, but no agreement has been reached thus far. A decision is expected to be announced this Friday.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
