São Paulo – The countries involved in the Arab Spring have lost over US$ 55 billion worth of revenues and productivity as a result of the uprisings and conflicts seen this year. The figure was culled from a report issued this Friday (14) by political risk consulting firm Geopolicity. The same survey reveals that the Arab nations that endured no crises posted gains from January to September 2011.
The combined losses incurred by Libya, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen stand at US$ 55.84 billion. Out of those, according to the survey, US$ 35.28 billion were costs to public finance. The remaining US$ 20.56 billion are the result of productivity losses incurred by those countries as a result of the conflicts.
The most harmed countries, according to the Geopolicity survey, were Syria, which lost US$ 27.3 billion, and Libya, which incurred losses of US$ 14.2 billion. Tunisia, where the uprisings began, lost US$ 2.5 billion. Yemen, where even the president was wounded, incurred US$ 980 million in losses.
Revenues dropped by 84% in Libya, and 77% in Yemen. The survey was conducted using International Monetary Fund (IMF) figures and does not include losses from flight of foreign investment, deaths, nor damage to the infrastructure of the affected countries.
On the other hand, the revenues and Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of Arab countries that did not stage uprisings has increased. Such is the case, for instance, of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Revenues increased by 31.86% in the Emirates, 27.7% in Kuwait, and 25.13% in Saudi. These countries are oil exporters, and according to the survey, they have benefited from increasing oil prices. Early this year, Brent-type oil sold for US$ 90, then peaked at US$ 120 and now stands at US$ 113.
The report suggests that Arab countries experiencing uprisings must adopt three measures to address their issues: political stability based on regional integration, resilient and accountable governance systems balancing rights and responsibilities, and homegrown and open socio-political frameworks creating an organic democratic process.
The survey claims that loans from other countries will only help those countries re-establish their financial systems, but will not help solve political problems. The report also states that in spite of the losses incurred, the region’s economic production increased by US$ 38.9 billion compared with the previous year.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
