Brasília – Uncertainty regarding the aid package to European countries has caused the real-to- dollar exchange rate in Brazil to close at its highest level since July last year. This Monday (19), the United States currency closed at 1.777 real to one dollar (sale), 2.57% more than last Friday (16). Throughout the day, the dollar came close to 1.80 real. However, it backed down in the late afternoon. In September alone, the US currency has recorded a combined increase of 11.55%. The exchange rate went up in all but one of the last 13 working days.
In spite of the dollar hike, the stock market had a less troubled day. The São Paulo Stock Exchange dropped 0.19%, ending the day at 57,102 points. So far this month, the stock market has risen by an accumulated 1.26%.
To the economist-in-chief at Austin Rating, Alex Agostini, chances are slim that the bullish trend of the US currency will last. “No structural aspect of the world economy has changed over the last few weeks for the dollar to become stabilized at a new level,” he says.
Agostini ascribes the exchange rate hike of the last few weeks to speculation regarding the new aid package to Eurozone countries, which may even include the purchasing of bonds from those countries by emerging ones. “The volatility will remain until actual solutions are set and announced for the Eurozone. The political debate is what allows for this exchange rate fluctuation.”
Regarding the United States, where president Barack Obama struggles to approve a tax raise on the wealthiest in order to lower the public account deficit, the economist claims that the country’s economic scenario is less of a cause for concern than the European Union’s status. “In the United States, the main concern is the fiscal and economic aspects, because the country has managed to reinforce aid to its financial institutions,” he says.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
