São Paulo – The Brazilian government has maintained its growth projection for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), even though economic activity has grown by only 0.15% in the first quarter compared with the last quarter of 2011 and declined by 0.35% in March compared with February, and although the market forecasts a lower rate, at 3.2%.
The government estimate was included in the Revenues and Spending Assessment Report for March and April, issued this Friday (18th) by the Federal Budget Secretariat. The GDP figures, in turn, were culled from the Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br, adjusted for the period).
In March, the index was down 0.35% as against February, at 139.47 point. The score is 1.18% lower than in March last year. In the first quarter compared with the same period of last year, the economy retracted by 0.23%. In the 12-month period ended March, however, there was a 1.57% pickup in economic activity.
However, the non-seasonally adjusted figures show a 11.23% increase in economic activity in March as against February, a 1.06% increase in quarter one compared with the same period of 2011, and a 1.84% increase in the last 12-month period ended March. The IBC-Br forecasts the evolution of Brazilian economic activity, comprising information on industry, trade, services and agriculture.
In the Revenues and Spending Assessment Report, the government raised budget spending by 1.328 billion reals. The inflation estimate, also included, stood at 4.7% based on the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the annual interest rate stood at 9.86%, and the average exchange rate was forecasted at 1.76 real. The projected average price of the oil barrel has been maintained at US$ 111.64.
*With information from Agência Brasil. Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
