Brasília – Financial market analysts approached by the Central Bank (BC) have expanded their projections for growth of the Brazilian economy in 2010. The estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the sum of all goods and services produced in the country, rose from 4.20% to 4.50%. Four weeks ago the estimate was 4%. For this year, stability is still estimated. This information was included in the Focus Bulletin, a weekly publication elaborated by the BC and based on projections by financial market analysts for the main indices of the economy.
With regard to industrial production this year, analysts forecast retraction of 7.24%, a slightly better estimate than the previous projection of (7.25%). For 2010, the forecast is still of recovery, with growth of 6%.
Analysts have changed their forecast for the ratio between the net debt of the public sector and the country GDP, which rose from 43.10% to 43.25% this year and from 41% to 41.20% for 2010. Expectations for dollar rates at the end of this year and for 2010 were maintained at one dollar going for 1.80 Brazilian reals.
The forecast for the trade surplus (the positive result between exports minus imports) rose from US$ 25 billion to US$ 25.3 billion this year. In 2010, the estimate was maintained at US$ 18 billion.
With regard to the deficit in current transactions (the total Brazilian purchases and sales of products on the foreign market) this year, analysts did not change their estimates, keeping the figure at US$ 15 billion. For 2010, the projection was altered from US$ 22.8 billion to US$ 23.6 billion.
The estimated foreign direct investment in 2009 (funds that go to the productive sector in the country) was maintained at US$ 25 billion and, next year, US$ 30 billion.
*Translated by Mark Ament
