Brasília – The high prices of soy on the international market and the result of crop problems in other grain exporter countries are responsible for the estimated high in the production of grain in Brazil in the 2012/2013 cycle. Simultaneously, a drop in the cultivated maize and cotton area is expected. According to figures disclosed on Tuesday (9) by the National Food Supply Company (Conab), the area on which soy is grown should total between 26.42 million and 27.32 million hectares, against 25.04 million hectares in the 2011/2012 crop, which represents growth of 5.5% to 9.1%. Production, in turn, should be between 80 million and 82.8 million tonnes, the result of 20.6% to 24.8% more than before.
According to Edilson Guimarães, the Trade and Supply director at the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply, an organisation connected to Conab, the conjecture related to soy causes the government to believe that the 2012/2013 crop will be record. "The first estimate of cultivated area is a conservative estimate, but is already record. We depend greatly on the climate, but we hope that soy, and then the second maize crop, should contribute to this result,” he said.
According to Guimarães, cultivation of soy should cover the area that was turned to other grain in previous years. "The study is confirming what we had already been feeling on viewing the market in recent months. There are expectations for growth of production of soy, taking over from areas that used to have first crop maize and cotton grown on them. It was forecastable, due to market prices,” he pointed out. According to figures disclosed by the Conab, maize will have a drop of 4% to 6.8% in cultivated area, and cotton, 20.2% to 27.2%.
The first study by Conab regarding the 2012/2013 crop estimates that the total area covered by the grain should be between 50.93 and 52.21 million hectares, 0.2% to 2.7% more than in 2011/2012. Production, in turn, should be between 177.68 and 182.27 million tonnes, against 165.7 million in the previous crop. That is, 7.2% to 10% growth is expected.
Apart from maize and cotton, rice should suffer a reduction of 1.4% to 2.9% in the cultivated area, and beans, 1.5% to 2.3%. According to Sílvio Porto, Agricultural Policy and Information director at Conab, the perspective requires attention for consumers not to be impacted by inflation on these products. "This is an aspect on which we (the Ministry of Agriculture) have to focus,” he said.
The first 2012/2013 crop forecast was made between September 17th and 28th, by 50 technicians at Conab. They went into the field in the main productive areas of the country. According to Sílvio Porto, the study took place in the Centre-South, which started with cultivation from August to September this year. To estimate production, the average of the last three years was used, aligned to data about the cultivated area. The northern and northestern regions have not yet started sowing the next crop, but the forecast considers repetition of the area on which the crop was grown in 2011/2012, and the average yield over the last there years.
*Translated by Mark Ament
