Brasília – Brazilian banks’ estimates for economic growth keep sliding, while expected inflation keeps going up. As per the Brazilian Central Bank’s weekly Focus Bulletin, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now seen growing by 2.18% this year, down from a prior 2.37% forecast. The projection regarding 2019 has been 3% for 18 weeks now.
As for inflation – whose measure in Brazil is the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) –, the forecast from financial market players moved up from 3.60% to 3.65% for this year, in the third upward weekly revision. The 2019 inflation forecast changed from 4% to 4.01%.
Respondents of the Central Bank’s poll see the benchmark interest rate staying at 6.50% per annum until the end of 2018 and then climbing throughout 2019 to end the year at 8%. The US dollar forecast for the end of this year changed from BRL 3.48 to BRL 3.50, and the forecast for the end of 2019 moved from BRL 3.47 to BRL 3.50.
Respondents’ trade surplus forecast changed from USD 57.15 billion to USD 57 billion regarding this year, and from USD 49.80 billion to USD 49.30 billion regarding 2019.
Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
