Brasília – Financial market analysts approached by the Central Bank of Brazil reduced their estimate for the growth of Brazil for the second week running. The estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose from 1.85% to 1.81%. For 2013, the projection was maintained at 4%. The figures are included in the Focus bulletin, a weekly publication issued by the Central Bank based on financial market projections for the main economic indices.
Projections for retraction of industrial production this year have been dropping for 11 weeks. This time, the estimated drop went from 0.69% to 1%. Next year, the expectation is for there to be recovery, with growth of 4.3%, as against 4.4% forecasted in the bulletin disclosed last week.
The projection for the ratio between public sector net debt and GDP dropped from 35.4% to 35.2%, this year, and has been maintained at 34% in 2013.
Expectations for dollar rates at the end of the year remain at R$ 2.00 per American dollar, both for 2012 and for 2013. The forecast for the trade surplus (the positive difference between exports and imports) rose from US$ 17.6 billion to US$ 18 billion this year, and from US$ 13.7 billion to US$ 14.2 billion in 2013.
For current account transactions (the result of Brazil’s purchase and sales of goods and services on the international market), the estimate was US$ 59.63 billion to US$ 59.25 billion this year, and maintained at US$ 70 billion in 2013.
Expected foreign direct investment was maintained at US$ 55 billion this year, increased to US$ 60 billion in 2013.
*Translated by Mark Ament
