São Paulo – The stagnation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter this year as against the preceding quarter came as no surprise to economic analysts. “To us, such performance was already expected,” said economist Fábio Pina, the economic advisor to the Federation of Commerce of the State of São Paulo (Fecomercio/SP).
He stressed that early this year, he had projected a growth rate of around 4% for the Brazilian economy. Still, he emphasized, the effects of macroprudential measures taken by the federal government in late 2010 to address the worsening crisis in the United States and Europe have stunted growth. In the third quarter, the GDP reached R$ 1.05 trillion reals (US$ 781.8 billion), virtually the same figure as in the second quarter, and 2.1% higher than from July to September of last year.
According to Pina, the country should start 2012 with a growth rate of around 2% and end the year at 4%. “On average, we will have 3%, though in a better scenario than this year, because the serious issue of the European sovereign debt will be solved slowly, and [the continent] will grow,” projected the economist.
To Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) professor Samy Dana, although the null growth rate is not good, it must be said that it is not the worst possible result. “I don’t see it as negative. In the Eurozone [unlike Brazil], some country will occasionally come into trouble and then it will just stay in trouble,” he said.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
