São Paulo – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made positive medium- and long-term forecasts for the economy of Tunisia. According to a press statement issued this Friday (3th), the fund estimates that the country will post real growth rates of 2.7% this year, 3.4% in 2013, and gradually increase until it reaches 6% in 2016. In 2011, the Tunisian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was down 1.8% due to the Arab Spring, which harmed tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI).
The IMF informs that signs of recovery started showing early this year, with a real growth rate of 4.8% in the first quarter. “Tunisia’s medium-term economic growth potential remains favourable, but unleashing it requires a comprehensive package of structural reforms to foster private investment” according to the Fund.
The IMF advises the country to improve the business environment, reform the labour market and educational system to address labour skills mismatches, and strengthen the financial sector. “Achieving higher growth will also require that large external financing, including FDI inflows and borrowing by the government and corporate sectors, can be mobilized,” according to the statement.
In the short term, however, the IMF sees risks to the economy, such as the crisis in Europe, a traditional destination for Tunisia exports; an eventual increase in internal social tension, which may scare away potential investors; delays in financing which could curb the envisaged growth-supporting fiscal stimulus; high unemployment levels, and instability in neighbouring countries.
“On the upside, a rapid stabilization of the situation in Libya could bolster investors’ confidence,” the Fund claims. Unemployment in Tunisia reached 19% in 2011, a result strongly influenced by the return of Tunisians who were working in the neighbour country.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
