São Paulo – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced by 0.2 percentage point its forecast for growth of the Middle East and North Africa this year, according to the World Economic Outlook, disclosed on Tuesday morning (9), in Tokyo, Japan, Monday evening (8), Brazil time.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the region should reach 5.3% in 2012. The July estimate was for 5.5% growth. For 2013, the figure was maintained at 3.6%. If the forecasted figure for this year is conformed, however, it will still be better than the performances in 2011 (3.3%) and 2010 (5%).
The IMF points out that activity in the Arab countries that import oil should be stunted by the uncertain economic policy still due to the Arab Spring and by low foreign trade. Expectations are for these nations to grow just 1.25% this year, with a moderate rebound in 2013.
In the Arab countries that export oil, the story is another. Especially due to the return to production of the commodity in Libya, the IMF expects the bloc to grow over 6.5% in 2012 and 3.75% next year.
Last weekend, the IMF director general, Christine Lagarde, had a meeting with the ministers of Finance and governors of central banks of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and praised the management of the economy of the bloc that includes Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman, as well as the Saudis. She pointed out the capacity for coordination between the local governments to face common economic challenges.
“While prospects remain challenging for many countries throughout the Arab World, the GCC economies are enjoying high growth,” stated Lagarde, in an IMF press statement. The oil and gas industry is the main pillar of the economies of the bloc.
Globally, the World Economic Outlook has reduced its estimate for growth of the global economy from 3.5% to 3.3% in 2012 and from 3.9% to 3.6% in 2013.
“Low growth and uncertainty in advanced economies are affecting emerging market and developing economies through both trade and financial channels, adding to homegrown weaknesses,” said IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard, in the organisation’s press statement.
For Brazil, the forecasted growth in 2012 is 1.5%, against 1.6% forecasted in July, and 4% in 2013, as against a forecasted 4.7% in July. The IMF points out, however, the expected acceleration in the economy of Brazil in the second half of this year, after the government implemented short-term measures to stimulate consumption and greater flexibility of monetary policy, with significant reductions of the benchmark interest rate since August 2011.
The report was disclosed at the beginning of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, to end on the 14th in the Japanese capital.
*Translated by Mark Ament
