Isaura Daniel
São Paulo – Brazilian farmers are getting ready to have a 23.4% grater harvest next year than they did in 2004. The most recent study by the National Food Supply Company (Conab) shows that the cropland is going to rise 5%, from 21.2 million hectares to 22.3 million. The estimates show production of 61.4 million tonnes, against 49.7 million in the last crop. The forecasts of the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE) are still more positive and show a 6% increase in the area and 29% increase in production.
This will also be the first legal crop of genetically modified (GM) soy in Brazil. The federal government authorized the sowing and trade of GM soy by Provisional Measure (MP). In the last harvest, the sale of GM soy was also legalized by MP as part of the farmers had planted GM soy despite its illegality.
There are still not official estimates about the percentage of GM soy in the total of the harvest but, according to the soy researcher at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), Alexandre Nepomuceno, the price reduction of soy should stimulate the sowing of GM seeds.
The price quotation of the bag of soy, which was at around US$ 19 (in current figures) at the beginning of the year, dropped to around US$ 11.70 this month. Due to its greater resistance to glyphosphates, powerful pesticides for the control of plants that grow around the soy, GM soy makes the use of a large scope of pesticides used in conventional crops unnecessary, generating economy.
This year, however, some cooperatives from the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a state where there is the greatest crop of GM soy, agreed with Monsanto, the company that has the patent for GM soy, that they would pay royalties of US$ 0.44 per bag of soy traded. Despite that, however, many farmers still believe that it will be advantageous to plant the seed.
In the last harvest, farmers from the state of Rio Grande do Sul planted around three million hectares of GM soy, or 90% of their area, with GM seeds. "Rio Grande do Sul should stick to this area in the next harvest," stated Nepomuceno. According to the provisory legislation, the trade is legal up to the end of January 2006, but the purchase of new seeds is still illegal. The only seeds that can be used are those that the farmers already have on their properties.
Next year, however, the Brazilian congress should vote the biosafety law dealing with the matter. Nowadays, whereas the biosafety law says that it is in the hands of the National Technical Commission on Biosafety (CTNBio) to free the consumption and trade of GM products, the environmental law says that the consumption of GM products is harmful to the health. The new law defines that the CTNBio will have the role of legislating regarding GM products, and that it will have the help of a council of ministers in more complex cases.
Conab economist Carlos Eduardo Cruz Tavares believes that it will be very hard for the country to make GM seeds illegal after two harvests have been allowed. According to Tavares, due to the presence of GM soy in the country, producers of normal soy will have to prove that their products is not GM so as to be able to sell to some markets.
"It is necessary to identify and certify all phases of production, and that is expensive," stated Tavares. According to him, not always are buyers prepared to pay more for conventional soy, a fact that makes the cost too high for farmers. "This is going to reduce farmer interest in taking care with that. They will therefore plant GM soy," stated Tavares.
Productivity
Independent of the discussion about GM seed, the country is getting ready for an increase in productivity of soy plantations. According to the Conab forecasts, the crops will have 17.6% greater productivity than the last. The Conab harvest study and evaluation manager, however, stated that a large part of the increase is compensation for the losses in the last harvest, due to the drought in the south and the excessive rain in the Midwest.
Despite low soy prices, farmers are opting for plantation of the commodity due to the fact that maize, the alternative to soy in the period, also has deteriorated prices. "And soy has grater liquidity and a better structure for storage and harvest," he said. There are not many perspectives, however, for the price of soy to improve as in 2004 the United States had a record harvest, 84 million tonnes, a fact that greatly increased soy offer on the foreign market.
For this harvest, the largest increase in area was registered in the midwest of Brazil, where the harvest should total 29 million tonnes. The cropland in the region has risen 5.4%. The second largest increase was in the southern region, with 3.5%.
The increase in exports, according to Oliveira, is going to depend on how the demand will be in some important world markets, as is the case with China. The country is currently the main buyer of Brazilian soy in grain.
Next year, Brazil will also have record agricultural production as a whole. The IBGE estimate shows that the harvest will total 134 million tonnes, with 12.38% growth over 2004.
