Brasília – The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) has dropped its forecast for growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Brazil this year from 3% to 2.1%. The figure is part of the Conjectural Information for the second quarter, which reduced expectations regarding the economy of Brazil in 2012. The GDP projection has also been reviewed, from 2% to 1.6%.
The estimated inflation measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was maintained at 5% this year, while the projected nominal interest rate for late 2012 dropped from 9% to 7.5%. The real interest rate, discounting inflation, measured by the IPCA, should remain at 3.3%, in the CNI estimate, as against a prior 4%.
According to CNI, the forecast for the public nominal deficit as against GDP dropped from 2.45% to 2.4% and that of the primary surplus of the public sector dropped from 2.75% to 2.5%. The projected public sector net debt dropped from 36% to 35.1% of GDP.
The CNI also forecasts a nominal exchange rate of R$ 2 per American dollar by the end of the year, with a trade balance surplus dropping from US$ 20.8 billion to US$ 20.2 billion. The projection for the current account deficit has also dropped, from US$ 58 billion to US$ 56 billion.
*Translated by Mark Ament
