Brasília – For the fourth straight week, the inflation forecast from financial institutions polled by the Brazilian Central Bank has gone up. As per the Focus Bulletin made public this Monday (2), the Extended National Consumer Price Index is seen ending the year at 3.52%, up from last week’s 3.46% estimate.
The 2020 forecast has been 3.60% for the past five weeks. Forecasts also remain unchanged at 3.75% for 2021 and 3.50% for 2022.
The poll’s respondents see the benchmark interest rate dropping from 5% to 4.5% by the end of the year. The rate is expected to remain at 4.5% so in 2020, and then go up to 6% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022.
Brazilian banks expect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to go up 0.99% this year, the same as in last week’s poll. The 2020 estimate changed from 2.20% to 2.22%. The poll’s 2021 and 2022 results remained at 2.50%.
The US dollar is expected to be selling for BRL 4.10 by the end of 2019, and for BRL 4.01 in late 2020. Both forecasts are the same as last week’s.
Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
