Brasília – The financial market inflation estimation for this year only goes up. The estimation for the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) went up for the 13th straight time. This time, the estimation went from 9.04% to 9.12%. For 2016, however, the estimation points to two slight declines in a row. The estimation is that at the end of next year, the IPCA will be at 5.44% against 5.45% from the last week’s estimation.
These forecasts came from the Focus Bulletin, a weekly report made by the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) based on a survey made with financial institutions about the main economic indicators. The inflation estimations are far from the center of the target range, which was established at 4.5%. This year, inflation is expected to exceed even the target ceiling, which stands at 6.5%. BC itself is forecasting the inflation to be at 9%.
The financial institutions’ expectations related to the economy downturn for this year remained at 1.50%. For the next year, the forecast calls for a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but of 0.5% only. In the financial market’s assessment, industrial output should decline 5%, against the 4.72% estimation of last year. For 2016, the growth projection went from 1.35% to 1.40%. The forecast for the dollar exchange rate went up from R$ 3.22 to R$ 3.23 at the end of 2015, and still remains at R$ 3.40 for the end of 2016.
*Translated by Sérgio Kakitani
