Brasilia – The financial market expects the Brazilian trade balance to post a surplus of US$ 3.5 billion this year, according to the Focus Bulletin of this Monday (23th), the weekly survey conducted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) with financial institutions. Last week, the forecast marked a surplus of US$ 3 billion.
The estimation for the public sector net debt remained at 38% of the GDP. The estimation for the current account deficit went from US$ 79.5 billion to US$ 79.8 billion. The foreign direct investment forecast declined, going from US$ 57.5 billion to US$ 56.5 billion. The financial market forecasts the dollar at R$ 3.15 at the end of the year.
The bulletin again increased its forecast for the inflation measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA). For analysts, the index will close the year going up 8.12%, and not 7.98% as estimated in the previous week. A great part of the inflation increase is linked to the administered prices, regulated by the government, such as gas and energy. According to the Focus forecast, in this year these prices will increase 12.6%, and not 12% as previously estimated.
Concerning the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the estimate is for the Brazilian economy to have a downturn of 0.83%. In the previous week, the decline was set at 0.78%. For the industrial output, the decline remains the same for the end of the year at 2.19%.
The estimate for the Selic, the benchmark interest rate and the BC’s main instrument for inflation control, remained at 13% per year. This means that the market expects the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to raise the interest rate once more this year, in 0.25 percentage point. In early March, Copom raised the Selic in 0.5 percentage point to 12.75% per year. At that moment, the increase met the expectations of the majority of the analysts.
*Translated by Sérgio Kakitani
