Brasília – The financial market has revised down its trade surplus expectation (exports higher than imports) in 2014. The projection has dropped for the sixth straight time, from US$ 400 million to only US$ 100 million. The analysts and investors polled were expecting a US$ 1 billion surplus two years ago and a US$ 2 billion surplus early in the month.
The data have been disclosed by the Central Bank (24th) this Monday via the Focus Bulletin. The expected US dollar price by the end of the year has been revised up from R$ 2.53 to R$ 2.55. On the 14th this month, the US currency closed above R$ 2.60 for the first time since 2005. The inflation rate projection measured by the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was raised from 6.40% to 6.43%.
The current account deficit forecast, a measure of how balanced a country’s external accounts are, has climbed from US$ 82 billion to US$ 83 billion. The economic growth forecast was down slightly from 0.21% to 0.2%. The industrial output forecast was kept at 2.3%.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
