Brasília – Finance ministry Guido Mantega today justified the discrepancy between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure forecasted by the economic team and the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Yesterday, the minister announced that the economy had grown 2% in the third quarter, but, according to the IBGE the growth in the period was 1.3% in comparison with the previous quarter and 1.2% in comparison with the third quarter of 2008.
According to Mantega, the difference between the projection and the figure disclosed was due to the change in methodology adopted by the IBGE in 2007, granting heavier weight to the service sector than to agriculture, for example. This change also caused an impact in the result of the fourth quarter of last year and in the quarters of this year.
The minister even said the twelve month result up to the third quarter would grow 8%, whereas the result disclosed by the IBGE for the period was 5.1%.
“It is far from the 8% that I mentioned and from the 8% that everyone else mentioned. But nobody could have imagined that the method of calculation would change this period. It changed the entire series. Now, our projection for this year is compromised with this change in figures,” said the minister, adding that he would rather not risk an estimate for 2009.
He soon, however, stated that the growth this year should be positive and, in the fourth quarter, analysing the present moment, the economy should grow between 4% and 4.5%.
"Therefore, we are going to have an end of year with the economy revolving around a satisfactory figure, and are going to start 2010 with a heated economy, I expect around 5% next year,” he said.
*Translated by Mark Ament
