São Paulo – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) disclosed a report on the Middle East and North Africa in Dubai today (25th). According to the organization, the economic outlook for countries in the two regions has improved due to the resumption of capital inflows and rising oil prices.
“The outlook for the region has improved considerably from 2009. We expect growth to gather momentum in 2010, helped by the pickup in capital inflows and the resurgence in domestic consumption,” said the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department Director, Masood Ahmed, according to a release issued by the Fund.
According to the institution, though, the stress that still affects the regional banking sector and the low volume of credit available prevent further progress.
To the IMF, the public accounts of oil exporting countries in the two regions were impacted by the international financial crisis, due to the commodity’s plummeting prices and sales. This group includes Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Emirates and Yemen.
These countries posted a combined current account surplus of US$ 53 billion in 2009, as against US$ 362 billion in 2008. The GDP of the oil industry decreased by 4.7%. The IMF stated, however, that stimulus measures adopted by the governments have cushioned the impact of the crisis. Other sectors of the economy, for instance, recorded growth of 3.6% last year.
This year, however, the Fund forecasts growth of 4.3% for the oil industry, and of 4.1% for other areas. Nations in the region should record a combined current account surplus of US$ 140 billion.
The estimates for the leading oil exporting countries are better than for other nations, such as Afghanistan, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Syria and Tunisia.
According to the IMF, these countries are recovering from a weak economic performance in 2009, but their growth rates remain lower than required in order for them to generate the number of jobs that they need. “The main challenge for emerging markets in the Middle East will be to improve their competitiveness in order to raise growth and generate much-needed employment,” said Ahmed.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
