São Paulo – The Moroccan economy is doing well, in spite of the complicated political situation in other North African nations and the appreciation of commodities, which has caused the country’s trade deficit to increase. The conclusion was drawn by a report issued by the Oxford Business Group (OBG), a consulting firm specializing in emerging Middle Eastern and Asian countries.
According to the survey, the Moroccan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 3.7% in 2010. It was the 13th consecutive year of growth. There was a slight decline in the agricultural GDP, while other sectors grew by 4.5%, which points to a diversification of domestic economy.
For 2011, according to the OBG, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the Moroccan economy should grow by 3.9%, whereas the local government bets on a rate of 5%. According to the survey, the economic performance will be driven by a strong agricultural crop, forecasted to range from 7 million to 7.8 million tonnes. Despite having lost space, agriculture remains one of the most important sectors in Morocco.
Another key segment, tourism, should see its revenues grow by 8% in the first five months of this year when compared with the same period of 2010, according to the OBG’s forecast. There was also a 6.8% increase in remittances of cash to the country by Moroccans living in Europe.
In the meantime, inflation is under control, according to the OBG, having remained below 1% last year. For this year, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.9% and the Moroccan government, 1.4%. The benchmark interest rate remains stable at 3.25%.
With regard to labour, the unemployment rate was 9.1% in the first quarter of 2011, as against 10% in the same period of 2010.
The appreciation of wheat and oil, however, contributed for the trade deficit to grow by 25% in the first five months of this year, in comparison with the same period of 2010. The deficit was 76.6 billion Moroccan dirhams (US$ 9.7 billion). This held true in spite of the 22% increase in exports, driven by the appreciation of phosphate and its products. Foreign sales reached 69.9 billion dirhams (US$ 8.9 billion) in the first five months of 2011.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
