São Paulo – The direction the world economy is headed in after Donald Trump’s inauguration as president of the United States will be one of the subjects that economist Octavio de Barros will cover during a breakfast with Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce member companies next Wednesday (15) in São Paulo.
The former chief economist with Bradesco will be one of the speakers, alongside Arab Chamber CEO Michel Alaby, who’ll deliver a lecture on the economies of Arab countries, Chamber president Rubens Hannun, who’ll announce the calendar for this year. Information will also be made available on a mission to North Africa due next April.
Barros said he will try to provide an overview of the global and domestic economic scenarios, with special emphasis on protectionist measures and their impact on growth, trade and investment around the world.
“An important issue to bring up is the international liquidity that will stem from the new economic policy of the United States. After eight straight years of quantitative easing, where are we headed? Is the ‘secular stagnation’ thesis sustainable? I have a somewhat pessimistic outlook on the global scenario,” warns the economist, who led Bradesco’s economic department for fifteen years.
Regarding the Brazilian economy, Barros believes that the truly indispensable reforms will be approved, and that will help ward off the perception of risk in the country. “As a result, interest rates will remain on a downward path, thereby improving businesses’ finances and their bargaining power. It is my opinion that we must not underestimate the impact of a drop in interest rates on the recovery of Brazil’s economy,” he says.
The economist believes there are signs that GDP growth in the second half could be 2.5%. According to him, the Central Bank’s tandem efforts with the Ministry of Finance have been key in improving the outlook. “Political uncertainty will possibly not cancel out the cyclical recovery, no matter how complex those developments may be,” he ponders.
Barros left Bradesco late last year because he was nearing the age limit for executives set forth in the bank’s statute (which his 62; he is currently 61). The economist remains the CEO at Instituto República and a managing partner at both B3A and OMRBarros Consultoria Econômica.
Quick facts
Breakfast with the Members
February 15, 8:30 am
Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce
Avenida Paulista, 326, 11th floor
Register at http://bit.ly/2lmWSy3
For additional information please call +55 11 3147-4131 or write to members@ccab.org.br
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
