São Paulo – Oil prices should remain appreciated in coming months, favouring the inflow of funds into the Arab world. Brazilian analysts believe in high prices, but not much higher than those currently practiced. "The macro tendency is for continued high prices," said the analyst at Modal Asset, Eduardo Roche, referring to the price appreciation since September last year, boosted by depreciation of the dollar and by the growing demand.
Due to the depreciation of the American currency on the global market, Brazilian investors seek other options, mainly funds and papers connected to commodities like oil, which boosted and should continue boosting prices. The high demand in developing nations, like China, is also weighing heavily. "Not just oil, but all commodities have reached their historic peaks in recent months, led by China," said Socopa brokerage analyst Osmar Camilo.
The political crisis in Egypt has also made the price of oil oscillate over the last few days, exceeding US$ 100 per WTI barrel, but different from some international forecasts, analysts do not believe in long-term maintenance of this influence. Other factors should continue influencing oil trade. On Thursday (10) the International Energy Agency (IEA) expanded its estimated global oil demand from 87.8 million barrels in 2010 and 89.3 million barrels in 2011, due to China.
Winter in the United States, according to Roche, also favours higher oil prices. For the time being, the appreciated commodity should not have great reflexes in the economy of Brazil, according to the analyst. In the case of the trade balance, Brazil both imports and exports oil, so there should be no increase in expenses. Prices should not yet be transferred to petrol and diesel, as the country government is working on controlling inflationary pressure.
On Thursday, on the New York Stock Exchange’s Nymex, the barrel of WTI oil for delivery in March closed at US$ 86.73, appreciation of US$ 0.02. In London, the Brent barrel for delivery in March closed at US$ 100.87 on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE), dropping US$ 0.95. Prices in London, over the last few days, suffered the greatest influence of the crisis in Egypt, according to analysts.
*Translated by Mark Ament
